Introduction: The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a
Introduction: The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The AUD/USD closed the week just a bit lower then it opened the prior Monday. With risk aversion back in the markets and the USD back to being the favorite safe haven, the Aussie was fighting a losing battle. The AUD closed the week at 1.0212
Midweek the Aussie was able to gain on strong retail sales as the USD was weak; it was the disappointing trade balance and the negative data from China that weakened the AUD
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
Jul 06, 2012 |
1.0212 |
1.0281 |
1.0289 |
1.0180 |
-0.67% |
Jul 05, 2012 |
1.0281 |
1.0265 |
1.0328 |
1.0243 |
0.16% |
Jul 04, 2012 |
1.0265 |
1.0284 |
1.0320 |
1.0262 |
-0.18% |
Jul 03, 2012 |
1.0284 |
1.0235 |
1.0296 |
1.0230 |
0.47% |
Jul 02, 2012 |
1.0236 |
1.0238 |
1.0278 |
1.0215 |
-0.02% |
This coming week brings some much awaited eco data from China as well as some tier two data from Oz. There might be some action here, except that the USD is remaining strong.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of July 2 – 6 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
Jul 2 |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
49.7 |
52.1 |
53.5 |
AUD |
Building Approvals m/m |
27.3% |
5.1% |
-7.6% |
|
JPY |
Average Cash Earnings y/y |
-0.8% |
0.6% |
0.2% |
|
Jul 3 |
AUD |
Cash Rate |
3.50% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
USD |
Factory Orders m/m |
0.7% |
0.1% |
-0.7% |
|
AUD |
AIG Services Index |
48.8 |
43.5 |
||
AUD |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
|
Jul 4 |
AUD |
Trade Balance |
-0.29B |
-0.51B |
-0.03B |
Jul 5 |
USD |
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
176K |
103K |
136K |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
374K |
385K |
388K |
|
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
52.1 |
53.1 |
53.7 |
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-4.3M |
-1.6M |
-0.1M |
|
Jul 6 |
USD |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
80K |
97K |
77K |
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
8.2% |
8.2% |
|
USD |
Average Hourly Earnings m/m |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Historical:
Highest: 1.1080USDon Jul 27, 2011
Average: 0.9126 USD over this period
Lowest: 0.6007USD Oct 27, 2008
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
Jul 9 |
1:30 |
AUD |
-2.4% |
|
22:00 |
NZD |
13 |
||
Jul 10 |
1:30 |
AUD |
-2 |
|
10th-14th |
NZD |
1.7% |
||
23:50 |
JPY |
-0.3% |
||
Jul 11 |
0:30 |
AUD |
0.3% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
0.2% |
||
12:30 |
USD |
-50.1B |
||
14:30 |
USD |
-4.3M |
||
Jul 12 |
1:00 |
AUD |
2.3% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
38.9K |
||
1:30 |
AUD |
5.1% |
||
12:30 |
USD |
|||
12:30 |
USD |
-1.0% |
||
18:00 |
USD |
-124.6B |
||
Jul 13 |
12:30 |
USD |
-1.0% |
|
13:55 |
USD |
73.2 |