Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD ended the week at 0.7190 unable to hold the 0.72 level against a stronger US dollar and a declining
The AUD/USD ended the week at 0.7190 unable to hold the 0.72 level against a stronger US dollar and a declining Chinese stock market. The AUD was down 0.69% on the week. Traders this week will focus on Tuesdays RBA meeting ahead of turning to the US NFP report. he Australian Dollar faces a perfect storm of volatility in the week ahead as high-profile event risk on the homegrown and the external fronts looms ahead. Monetary policy considerations are first to take center stage, only to be replaced by churn in risk sentiment trends.
The RBA is expected to keep the benchmark lending rate unchanged at 2 percent at Tuesday’s meeting. This will put the focus on the accompanying policy statement and any forward guidance therein. A recent center-bound shift in the bank’s rhetoric degraded but has yet to destroy rate cut speculation.
Prevailing economic conditions are unlikely to have changed enough to trigger Governor Glenn Stevens and company to make a firm move out of wait-and-see mode. This points to a neutral policy statement echoing the data dependence of future actions, shifting the spotlight to the third-quarter GDP report due later in the week.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week:
|
|
|
|
Event |
|
|
Consensus |
Previous |
|
|||||||||
TUESDAY, DEC 01 |
|
|||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
JPY |
Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda |
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
AUD |
RBA Interest Rate Decision |
|
2% |
2% |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
AUD |
RBA Rate Statement |
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
EUR |
Unemployment Change (Nov) |
|
-5K |
-5K |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
EUR |
Unemployment Rate s.a. (Nov) |
|
6.4% |
6.4% |
|||||||||||
WEDNESDAY, DEC 02 |
|
|||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
AUD |
RBA’s Governor Glenn Stevens |
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
EUR |
Consumer Price Index – Core |
|
1.1% |
1.1% |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
EUR |
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Nov) |
|
0.2% |
0.1% |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
EUR |
Producer Price Index (MoM) |
|
-0.4% |
-0.3% |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
EUR |
Producer Price Index (YoY) (Nov) |
|
-3.2% |
-3.1% |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
CAD |
BoC Interest Rate Decision |
|
0.5% |
||||||||||||
|
|
|
CAD |
BOC Rate Statement |
|
|||||||||||||
THURSDAY, DEC 03 |
|
|||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
EUR |
ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec 3) |
|
0.05% |
0.05% |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
EUR |
ECB press conference |
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
USD |
Fed’s Yellen testifies |
|
|||||||||||||
FRIDAY, DEC 04 |
|
|||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Rate (Nov) |
|
5% |
5% |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) |
|
200K |
271K |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
CAD |
Net Change in Employment (Nov) |
|
0.7K |
44.4K |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
CAD |
Unemployment Rate (Nov) |
|
7% |
7% |
|||||||||||
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction
Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec
Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions
Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs
Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction
Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction