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AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 16-20, 2013 Forecast
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD ended a rollercoaster week just about where it started gaining after election results on Monday and
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The AUD/USD ended a rollercoaster week just about where it started gaining after election results on Monday and keeping those gains throughout the week after Chinese trade balance and export data on Sunday supported the currency and the US dollar traded back at its normal ranges as tensions and safe haven trades dissipated after the Russians came up with an acceptable diplomatic solution to the chemical weapons in Syria.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Sep 13, 2013 |
0.9246 |
0.9264 |
0.9267 |
0.9224 |
-0.19% |
|
Sep 12, 2013 |
0.9264 |
0.9333 |
0.9354 |
0.9228 |
-0.74% |
|
Sep 11, 2013 |
0.9333 |
0.9299 |
0.9339 |
0.9276 |
0.37% |
|
Sep 10, 2013 |
0.9299 |
0.9230 |
0.9319 |
0.9230 |
0.75% |
|
Sep 09, 2013 |
0.9230 |
0.9191 |
0.9242 |
0.9168 |
0.42% |
It’s a busy week for the Reserve Bank of Australia, with the minutes of its latest board meeting, a conference appearance and the release of its quarterly bulletin all on the calendar. On Tuesday, the central bank will release the minutes of its September board meeting. The board decided to hold the official cash rate at 2.5 per cent, so all eyes will be on the commentary surrounding the decision.
Wednesday will see RBA assistant governor Malcolm Edey take part in a panel at the Financial Services Institute of Australasia Conference 2013 in Sydney.
On Thursday, the Reserve Bank will publish its quarterly bulletin for the three months to September.
This week’s focus though will be primarily the FOMC decision. On Thursday, the biggest event of the week, the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will conclude, with the US Fed’s policy-making arm set to hand down its decision on interest rates. More importantly it will decide on whether to start tapering its stimulus program. Analysts expect the $US80 billion ($A86 billion) per month bond-buying program will be scaled back by around $US10 billion.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of September 9-13 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Sep. 09 |
00:50 |
JPY |
Adjusted Current Account |
0.33T |
0.32T |
0.65T |
|
|
00:50 |
JPY |
GDP (QoQ) |
0.9% |
0.9% |
0.6% |
|
|
00:50 |
JPY |
Current Account n.s.a. |
0.58T |
0.49T |
0.34T |
|
|
02:30 |
AUD |
Home Loans (MoM) |
2.4% |
2.0% |
2.6% |
|
|
02:30 |
CNY |
Chinese CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
2.6% |
2.7% |
|
|
02:30 |
CNY |
Chinese PPI (YoY) |
-1.6% |
-1.8% |
-2.3% |
|
|
02:30 |
CNY |
Chinese CPI (MoM) |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
|
Sep. 10 |
00:50 |
JPY |
Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) |
-0.4% |
-0.4% |
-0.5% |
|
|
02:30 |
AUD |
NAB Business Confidence |
6 |
-3 |
|
|
|
06:30 |
CNY |
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) |
20.3% |
20.2% |
20.1% |
|
|
06:30 |
CNY |
Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) |
10.4% |
9.9% |
9.7% |
|
Sep. 11 |
00:50 |
JPY |
BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions |
15.2 |
7.2 |
5.0 |
|
|
00:50 |
JPY |
CGPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
|
01:30 |
AUD |
Westpac Consumer Sentiment |
4.70% |
3.50% |
|
|
|
18:00 |
USD |
10-Year Note Auction |
2.946% |
2.620% |
|
|
|
22:00 |
NZD |
Interest Rate Decision |
2.50% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
Sep. 12 |
00:50 |
JPY |
Core Machinery Orders (YoY) |
6.5% |
7.6% |
4.9% |
|
|
02:30 |
AUD |
Employment Change |
-10.8K |
10.0K |
-11.4K |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
292K |
330K |
323K |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
2871K |
2960K |
2944K |
|
|
19:00 |
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-147.9B |
-150.0B |
-97.6B |
|
Sep. 13 |
05:30 |
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
3.4% |
3.2% |
3.2% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
PPI (YoY) |
1.4% |
1.3% |
2.1% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core PPI (YoY) |
1.1% |
1.3% |
1.2% |
|
|
14:55 |
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
76.8 |
82.0 |
82.1 |
Historical: From 2011 to present
Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011
Average: 1.0292 USD over this period
Lowest: 0.9114 USD Jun 30, 2013
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Sep. 16 |
13:30 |
USD |
9.20 |
8.24 |
|
|
|
14:15 |
USD |
0.4% |
|
|
|
Sep. 17 |
13:30 |
USD |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.6% |
2.0% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.8% |
1.7% |
|
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
|
-66.9B |
|
|
|
23:45 |
NZD |
-1.80B |
-0.66B |
|
|
Sep. 18 |
13:30 |
USD |
0.948M |
0.954M |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.925M |
0.896M |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
|
3.9% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
|
5.9% |
|
|
|
23:45 |
NZD |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
|
Sep. 19 |
00:50 |
JPY |
-1101B |
-1024B |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-97.2B |
-106.1B |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
5.25M |
5.39M |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
10.1 |
9.3 |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
-2.6% |
6.5% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 16 09:00 Slovakia
Sep 16 09:10 Norway
Sep 17 08:30 Spain
Sep 17 09:30 Belgium
Sep 18 09:10 Sweden
Sep 18 09:30 Germany
Sep 18 09:30 Portugal
Sep 19 08:30 Spain
Sep 19 08:50 France
Sep 19 09:30 UK
Sep 19 09:50 France
Sep 19 15:00 US
Sep 19 17:00 US
Sep 20 15:30 Italy
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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