Binance Coin Bears Set to Push BNB Price Down By 25%: Here’s Why

Binance’s native coin, BNB, has jumped by nearly 8% in the past week, helped by an overall resilient crypto market amid the escalating US–Iran tensions and an underperforming global stock market.

However, BNB, which is down by over 50% from its October 2025 record high at over $1,375, may decline further in the coming days or weeks. That’s due to a flurry of convincing technical and on-chain setups.

BNB Technical Setup Points To Over 25% Price Decline Ahead

BNB’s bearish outlook stems from what appears to be a bear flag breakdown on its three-day chart.

A bear flag forms when the price rebounds inside an upward-sloping parallel channel after a sharp decline. In most cases, the structure reflects temporary consolidation before the prior downtrend resumes.

BNB has already broken below the flag’s lower trendline after failing to reclaim its key moving average cluster. The breakdown also pushed the token back below its 20- (green), 50- (red), 100- (purple), and 200-period (blue) exponential moving averages (EMAs), suggesting that sellers remain in control of the broader trend.

That said, the decline may not happen in a straight line.

BNB could first attempt a rebound toward its 20-3D EMA, currently near the $635–$640 area. That level also aligns with the broken lower trendline of the bear flag, making it a likely retest zone in the coming sessions.

Such retests are common in technical analysis. After a breakdown, the price often rebounds toward the lost support level to test whether it has flipped into resistance.

So, a rejection from the $635–$640 region would strengthen the bearish continuation setup and increase the probability of a deeper move lower.

The bear flag’s measured downside target sits near $430, down over 25% from current price levels. The target comes from subtracting the height of the previous decline from the breakdown point.

The $430 area also acts as a visible horizontal support zone on the chart, increasing its importance as a potential downside objective.

BNB On-Chain Data Shows Weak Accumulation

Glassnode data adds another bearish layer to BNB’s technical setup.

BNB supply held by addresses with balances between $1,000 and $10,000, $10,000 and $100,000, and over $100,000 has dropped sharply since the token peaked above $1,375 in late 2025.

The decline suggests that smaller holders, mid-sized investors, and larger wallets have all reduced exposure during the correction. More importantly, these cohorts have not shown a strong recovery despite BNB’s recent 8% weekly rebound.

That weakens the bullish case. In strong recoveries, larger wallets usually absorb supply during pullbacks. Here, the data shows limited accumulation across key wallet groups.

There’s one caveat. These charts track wallet balances in USD terms, so falling BNB prices can also push addresses into lower balance bands.

Still, the synchronized decline supports a cautious outlook. Without renewed accumulation, BNB’s rebound risks becoming a relief rally before another move lower.