The Week Ahead: Fed, GDP and Big Tech Earnings Set the Tone for U.S. Stocks

Market Overview

U.S. equities enter the week with the Federal Reserve, inflation data, economic growth, and major technology earnings at the center of attention. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed last week at 51,947.25, down 0.38%. The Nasdaq Composite finished at 24,975.82, down 2.13%, while the S&P 500 ended at 7,411.98, down 0.61%.

Rising oil prices have renewed inflation concerns as U.S.–Iran tensions push crude toward $100. The notes indicate that economic resilience, a stable labor market, AI investment, and corporate profit growth remain supportive, but higher energy prices and yields have increased the risk of a higher-for-longer policy backdrop.

The central theme this week is the Federal Reserve’s July meeting. Core PCE, second-quarter GDP, employment costs, consumer confidence, and earnings from Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple, and Amazon will also influence trading.

Key Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Jul. 27

Before the Open

• Bank of Hawaii (BOH), est. $1.46

Economic Releases

•   12:30 GMT, Core Durable Goods Orders, forecast 0.9% (prior 1.4%)
  • 12:30 GMT, Durable Goods Orders, forecast 1.6% (prior -4.5%)

After the Close

•   Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), est. $2.05
  • F5 (FFIV), est. $4.00
  • Nucor (NUE), est. $4.46
  • Universal Health Services (UHS), est. $5.94
  • Whirlpool (WHR), est. -$0.06

Tuesday, Jul. 28

Before the Open

•   Boeing (BA), est. -$0.28
  • Coca-Cola (KO), est. $0.93
  • PayPal (PYPL), est. $1.28
  • S&P Global (SPGI), est. $4.81
  • UPS (UPS), est. $1.66

Economic Releases

•   12:15 GMT, ADP Weekly Employment Change (prior 16.5K)
  • 12:30 GMT, Goods Trade Balance, forecast -98.0B (prior -105.8B)
  • 12:30 GMT, Preliminary Wholesale Inventories, forecast 0.2% (prior 0.1%)
  • 13:00 GMT, House Price Index, forecast 0.2% (prior -0.1%)
  • 13:00 GMT, S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City HPI, forecast 0.8% (prior 1.1%)
  • 14:00 GMT, Conference Board Consumer Confidence, forecast 92.1 (prior 91.2)
  • 14:00 GMT, Richmond Manufacturing Index (prior 4)

After the Close

•   Ford Motor (F), est. $0.36
  • NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), est. $3.52
  • Seagate Technology (STX), est. $5.10
  • Teradyne (TER), est. $2.09
  • Visa (V), est. $3.23

Wednesday, Jul. 29

Before the Open

•   General Dynamics (GD), est. $3.96
  • Humana (HUM), est. $7.25
  • Procter & Gamble (PG), est. $1.41
  • SoFi Technologies (SOFI), est. $0.11
  • Vertiv (VRT), est. $1.42

Economic Releases

•   14:30 GMT, Crude Oil Inventories (prior 2.0M)
  • 18:00 GMT, Federal Funds Rate, forecast 3.75% (prior 3.75%)
  • 18:00 GMT, FOMC Statement
  • 18:30 GMT, FOMC Press Conference

After the Close

•    Arm Holdings (ARM), est. $0.40
  • Meta Platforms (META), est. $7.19
  • Microsoft (MSFT), est. $4.24
  • Qualcomm (QCOM), est. $2.23
  • Starbucks (SBUX), est. $0.66

Thursday, Jul. 30

Before the Open

•    Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), est. $1.60
  • Mastercard (MA), est. $4.77
  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), est. $10.21
  • Trane Technologies (TT), est. $4.27
  • Valero Energy (VLO), est. $10.13

Economic Releases

•   12:30 GMT, Advance GDP, forecast 2.3% (prior 2.1%)
  • 12:30 GMT, Core PCE Price Index, forecast 0.1% (prior 0.3%)
  • 12:30 GMT, Advance GDP Price Index, forecast 3.7% (prior 3.6%)
  • 12:30 GMT, Initial Jobless Claims, forecast 206K (prior 187K)
  • 12:30 GMT, Personal Income, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.7%)
  • 12:30 GMT, Personal Spending, forecast 0.4% (prior 0.7%)

After the Close

•   Amazon (AMZN), est. $1.81
  • Apple (AAPL), est. $1.89
  • Coinbase Global (COIN), est. -$0.39
  • Reddit (RDDT), est. $0.95
  • Roblox (RBLX), est. -$0.34

Friday, Jul. 31

Before the Open

•   AbbVie (ABBV), est. $3.60
  • Chevron (CVX), est. $5.52
  • Eaton (ETN), est. $3.07
  • Exxon Mobil (XOM), est. $3.61
  • Linde (LIN), est. $4.49

Economic Releases

•   12:30 GMT, Employment Cost Index, forecast 0.8% (prior 0.9%)
  • 13:45 GMT, Chicago PMI, forecast 57.5 (prior 56.7)
  • 14:00 GMT, Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, forecast 54.2 (prior 54.4)
  • 14:00 GMT, Revised University of Michigan Inflation Expectations (prior 4.2%)

After the Close

• No reports scheduled

Central Bank Activity

Wednesday, Jul. 29

•   FOMC policy decision and statement, 18:00 GMT
  • Fed Chair Kevin Warsh press conference, 18:30 GMT

Markets will focus on the Fed’s assessment of inflation, oil prices, and the policy outlook. The notes expect rates to remain at 3.50% to 3.75% in July, while identifying September as a live meeting if energy pressures persist.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 51,947.25 (-0.38%), support at 50,998.94, 50,458.41, 49,173.29, the 52-week SMA at 48,249.75, 48,201.91, 42,740.54, and 36,611.78, resistance at 53,289.30.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index

Nasdaq: 24,975.82 (-2.13%), support at 23,940.23, the 52-week SMA at 23,501.27, 23,173.24, 20,987.12, 19,523.19, and 14,784.03, resistance at 27,190.21.

Weekly S&P 500 Index

S&P 500: 7,411.98 (-0.61%), support at 6,968.90, the 52-week SMA at 6,906.22, 6,815.03, 6,227.97, 5,899.24, and 4,835.04, resistance at 7,429.38 and 7,620.90.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact long-term uptrend.

Outlook

The week’s main risks are the Fed decision, Core PCE inflation, GDP, labor-cost data, and earnings from major technology and consumer companies. AI spending and monetization will remain important as Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple, and Amazon report.

The technical trend remains constructive, but all three indices closed lower last week and the Nasdaq posted the largest decline. The direct market forecast is for catalyst-driven trading with support levels likely to be tested if the Fed, inflation data, or earnings disappoint. A stronger tone requires the indices to hold support and begin moving back toward their listed resistance levels.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.