Bitcoin Breakout Begins? BTC Chart Points to $68K After US–Iran Deal

Bitcoin (BTC) price is showing a bullish recovery setup as easing US–Iran tensions revive risk appetite and BTC’s short-term chart points toward a move to $68,000.

Bitcoin Bulls Return as US–Iran Peace Deal Calms Markets

Bitcoin rose by over 2% in the past 24 hours, almost hitting $66,000 on Monday. The rally appeared as the US and Iran reached a preliminary peace agreement aimed at ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

The deal has already eased pressure across global markets.

Oil prices dropped sharply as traders priced in the return of safer energy flows through one of the world’s most important shipping routes.

The US dollar also hovered near a 10-day low, while demand for riskier assets improved.

That backdrop matters for Bitcoin.

When oil prices fall, inflation fears usually cool. That can reduce pressure on central banks to stay restrictive for longer.

A weaker dollar also tends to help dollar-priced risk assets, including Bitcoin, because it improves liquidity conditions and makes alternative assets more attractive.

In simple terms, fewer war headlines, lower oil prices, and a softer dollar give Bitcoin bulls a better macro setup.

BTC Bottom Signal Flashes Again

Bitcoin’s on-chain setup also supports the bullish case.

The UTXO profit/loss supply ratio momentum indicator has flashed a fresh bottom alert. This metric tracks the balance between Bitcoin supply sitting in profit and supply sitting in loss, then measures how quickly that balance changes.

For new traders, the indicator works like a market stress gauge. When too many holders are sitting on losses or selling in panic, the market often moves closer to a bottoming zone.

That has happened before.

The same type of alert appeared near Bitcoin’s late-2018 bear-market bottom, during the March 2020 COVID crash, and around the late-2022 cycle low.

BTC did not always rally immediately after those signals, but each cluster appeared near areas where long-term buyers eventually stepped in.

The latest alert suggests Bitcoin may be going through another reset phase rather than entering a fresh long-term bear market.

Bitcoin Ascending Triangle Targets $68,000

Bitcoin’s four-hour chart now gives bulls a clearer short-term trigger.

BTC has broken above an ascending triangle after buyers defended higher lows near $60,000–$62,000. The breakout above the flat resistance around $64,000 signals improving upside momentum.

Based on the triangle’s height, the measured upside target sits near $68,000, matching the next key resistance zone.

A drop back below $64,000 would weaken the setup. But for now, easing US–Iran tensions, a fresh on-chain bottom signal, and BTC’s triangle breakout keep the $68,000 target in play.