Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Truce Stability vs Inflation Pressure — Can Gold Hold or Silver Extend Gains?

Precious Metals Fundamentals Endure as Iran Ceasefire Eases Immediate Risks

The factors supporting gold’s longer-term structure, however, remain in place as of June 15, 2026 despite a recent ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran announced by President Trump and the prospect for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. Central bank purchases will continue to anchor gold market fundamentals, with official sector buying into 2026 and beyond as countries continue their ongoing diversification efforts outside of traditional reserves in the wake of longer-term concerns around fiscal positions and monetary policy.

In the short term, the geopolitical risk trade and subsequent safe-haven demand is unlikely to return to its previous levels during the Gulf region disruptions in the immediate aftermath of the recent ceasefire announcement, though this is expected to be offset somewhat by macro economic factors such as the inflationary pressures stemming from the oil disruptions, as well as continued policy divergence and gold’s broader role as a store of value. “While we expect that a gradual normalization of oil flows would have a dampening effect on the inflationary impact of such shocks,” the analysts noted, “the secular theme of reserve diversification is expected to continue as a support for the metal for the foreseeable future.”

The outlook for silver continues to remain robust based on ongoing market deficits. The Silver Institute’s latest report on the silver market projected a 6th consecutive year of deficit into 2026, with the deficit estimated at 46 million ounces. As in previous years, the silver market continues to be supported by industrial fabrication demands, which are expected to be driven by the growth in solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, electrification (i.e., automobiles), electronics and AI, while production remains tight, much of it a byproduct of other metals operations. Like for gold, the recent geopolitical development is not likely to change the outlook for industrial metal supply disruptions in the near-term, but will be offset somewhat by silver’s role as an investment and a safe-haven asset and its tight supply-demand balance in a world moving toward a more sustainable energy system.

Gold Spot Surges to $4,329 – Blue Channel Floor Bounce on 2h

Gold spot now stands at $4,329. On the 2-hour chart, a strong green continuation candle defended the blue floor and the 0.236 Fib level near $4,280 following a sharp lower rejection. More so, green engulfing continuation bodies with lower wicks and higher lows from $4,182 suggest that the market is absorbing selling pressure. The 50 SMA is now providing dynamic support around $4,194. RSI stands over 48, confirming momentum recovery without overbought.

A volume profile has also emerged as a fair value pivot within the zone of $4,200-4,240. A white descending trendline has become an upper boundary for now, around the $4,364 price level. Above $4,280, the market structure is now becoming neutral to bullish as it moves within the wider down trend channel of $4,575 highs. With the formation of higher lows, this suggests that buyers are currently in action on pullbacks.

Trade Idea: Buy $4,329 targeting $4,364, stop $4,240.

Silver Spot Reclaims $70.34 – Fib 0.236 Defense on 4h

Silver spot is currently trading at $70.34. On the 4 hour chart, a green continuation candle defended the 0.236 fib level and long term support level around $68.15 following a pullback from $72.47 highs. The bullish wicks suggest that the market is absorbing selling pressure around the red circle pivot point, while mixed continuation bodies help limit the downside. Selling pressure remains a concern with the red MA overhead around $72.21.

RSI is currently around 50 in the current period. A volume profile has also emerged as a key accumulation zone within the zone of $68-70. Above $68.15, the market structure is now becoming neutral to bullish as it moves within the wider down trend channel. This suggests that the market will attempt to stabilise at this area as the fib levels are now confluence in the zone.

Trade Idea: Buy $70.34 targeting $72.21, stop $68.15.