US BTC-Spot ETF Market Set the Tone for the Wednesday Session
On Wednesday (May 15), Bitcoin (BTC) surged 7.44%. Reversing a 2.12% loss from Tuesday (May 14), BTC ended the session at $66,168.
US BTC-spot ETF market flow data for Tuesday (May 14) set the tone for the Wednesday (May 15) session. The US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $100.5 million as investors reacted to a Fed Chair Powell speech. Powell did not think the Fed would raise interest rates.
However, US retail sales data and the US CPI Report drove buyer demand for riskier assets on Wednesday (May 15) and a BTC return to the $66,000 handle.
US Inflation and Retail Sales Fuel Bets on a Fed Rate Cut
The US annual inflation rate fell from 3.5% to 3.4% in April. Furthermore, the core inflation rate declined from 3.8% to 3.6%.
Softer consumer price trends raised investor bets on a September Fed rate cut. Retail sales figures for April signaled a softer inflation environment. Retail sales stalled in April after advancing by 0.6% in March.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged in September slid from 34.9% to 25.5% on Wednesday (May 15). The shift in sentiment toward the Fed rate path influenced buyer appetite for US BTC-spot ETFs.
Based on numbers from Farside Investors,
- Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw net inflows of $27.0 million on Wednesday (May 15) after net outflows of $50.9 million on Tuesday (May 14).
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) reported net inflows of $131.3 million, up from $8.1 million on Tuesday.
- Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) saw net inflows of $86.3 million after zero net flows on Tuesday.
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) reported net inflows of $38.6 million, down from net inflows of $133.1 million on Tuesday.
- Excluding flow data for iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO), the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $298.4 million on Wednesday (May 15).
The two-day upswing in total net inflows coincided with 13F filings in the US. Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas considered the breakdown of IBIT investors, saying,
Bitcoin Price Forecast
Every new Bitcoin analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Bitcoin forecasts“Impressive just how many dif institution types represented in first 13Fs. Here’s IBIT breakdown by type. Only inst type missing is Endowment I think. Normally you don’t see this long a list of holder types till years after launch and mega liquidity (which IBIT already has).”
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Analysis
BTC sat above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.
A BTC return to $67,500 could support a move to the $69,000 resistance level. A BTC break above the $69,000 resistance level could give the bulls a run at the $73,808 all-time high.
US economic data, FOMC member speeches, and BTC-sport ETF market flow trends need consideration.
Conversely, a BTC break below the $64,000 support level and the 50-day EMA could bring the $60,365 support level into play.
With a 57.02 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC could break above the $69,000 resistance level before entering overbought territory.
Ethereum Analysis
ETH remained below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs confirmed the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price trends.
An ETH breakout from the $3,033 resistance level would support a move to the 50-day EMA. A break above the 50-day EMA could give the bulls a run at the $3,244 resistance level.
Conversely, an ETH fall through the 200-day EMA could bring the $2,664 support level into play.
The 14-period Daily RSI reading of 47.49 indicates an ETH fall to the $2,664 support level before entering oversold territory.
