Bitcoin (BTC) Price on Edge —$50k Reversal or $60k Breakout? 

Ibrahim Ajibade
Updated: Feb 22, 2024, 23:21 UTC

Key Points:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) price tumbled towards $50,600 on Feb 20, its lowest for the week. 
  • Bitcoin Age Consumed surged above 40.29 million coin days on Feb 19, the highest profit-taking wave among long-term holders so far in 2024.
  • While BTC price quickly recovered, trading at $51,500 at press time, the rising Age Consumed trends suggest the $53,000 resistance is unlikely to cave in the short-term. 
Bitcoin BTC price rally

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Bitcoin (BTC) price rebound to daily-timeframe peak of $52,050 on Feb 22, a 3% recovery from its weekly low of $50,664 record about 24 hours prior. On-chain data reveals that the bearish pullback was accompanied by a significant profit-taking wave among Bitcoin long-term holders. 

With this critical metric still trending bearish, what are the chances of a Bitcoin price witnessing a breakout above $60,000 in the coming days?

BTC Long-term Investors Book Highest Profits in 40-days

Wednesday Feb 21, marked the first time Bitcoin price traded below $50,700 in a week. Remarkably, its closest rival Ethereum (ETH) price had soared to a new 2-year peak price of $3,000, signaling that the BTC pull back was fueled by internal factors rather than broader market headwind. 

In confirmation of this stance, on-chain data trends reveal that Bitcoin long-term investors entered a record-breaking profit-taking wave ahead of the price downtrend. 

Santiment’s Age Consumed metric, tracks real-time swings in long-term investors trading activity, by multiplying the number of recently-traded coins  by the number of days since they had last moved. 

Rising values of the Age Consumed metric implies that more long-held coins are currently being traded and vice-versa. 

Bitcoin (BTC) Age Consumed vs. Price | Source: Santiment
Bitcoin (BTC) Age Consumed vs. Price | Source: Santiment

The chart above depicts that BTC Age Consumed recorded a significant upswing on Feb. 19, a move that appears to have tipped the momentum in the bears’ favor.

Bitcoin saw 40.29 million coin days consumed on Feb 19. And within 48 hours of that surge in long-held coins traded, BTC price took a tumble from 5% tumble from $52,985 to a weekly low of $50.664.  

Notably, this was the highest value of Age Consumed BTC has recorded since market post-ETF sell-the-news wave around Jan 15. After cooling on Feb 20, the Age Consumed has been on the rise again, recording progressively higher values in each of the last 3 trading days. 

This signals that after watching Bitcoin add over $210 billion to its market capitalization in the last 40-days, BTC long-term holders are now making strategic moves to take some chips off the table, or rotate the gains into the altcoins with high-growth prospects, possibly to front-run a potential pre-halving wobble. 

When long-term investors display low confidence as observed on the Bitcoin network this week, other investors and swing traders may pick up the cues and begin to take on a bearish position themselves. 

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Reversal Below $50,000 is More Likely 

Bitcoin price is now more likely to reverse below $50,000 if the long-term holder intensify their selling trend as depicted by the BTC Age Consumed on-chain trends this week.

However for the bears to stage a brazen attempt at a reversal below $50,000. the must first scale the looming buy-wall at $50,500.

IntoTheBlock’s global in & out of the money chart shows that, 2.8 million current holders had bought 1.2 million BTC at the average price of $50,726.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction, Feb 23, 2024 | Source: IntoTheBlock
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction, Feb 23, 2024 | Source: IntoTheBlock

In a bid to avoid massive liquidations and margin calls, those investors could make frantic covering purchases, inadvertently triggering a sharp rebound as observed earlier this week.

But failure to hold that $50,700 support level could see BTC price dip as low as $48,000.

About the Author

Ibrahim Ajibade Ademolawa is a seasoned research analyst with a background in Commercial Banking and Web3 startups, specializing in DeFi and TradFi analysis. He holds a B.A. in Economics and is pursuing an MSc in Blockchain.

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