Bitcoin Dropped to $15500 Last Week, Setting a New Yearly Low

Bitcoin Fundamentals

Roughly $157M were wiped out across top derivatives exchanges globally on November 8. The cryptocurrency market cap lost around $100B on FTX’ implosion. It all started with users tweeting about withdrawals issue, $600M hack and went on to the Chapter 11 filings etc. The issues with FTX had a chain reaction on the industry as the plague contaminated one of the largest crypto lending platforms BlockFi.

To keep users, many centralized crypto exchanges organized security funds. However, this had a small impact on panic withdrawals from exchanges, which forced some minor players in the industry to close for good.

December usually is a less volatile month according to Bitcoin’s monthly returns.

This month might be the same as fear around the industry remains fueled not only by developments around FTX but inflation as well. Those who believed that cryptocurrency trading and Bitcoin is a good hedge now are in uncertainty. Though, not in Extreme Fear.

The Index above suggests an increasing risk appetite of investors for bullish run. The same is suggested by the Long vs Shorts data on Coinglass, 51.99% longs vs 48.01% shorts in the past hour.

Despite the data being so attractive for maximalists, I would also highly recommend to consider the technical analysis below.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

I posted this chart analysis on November 8, right before the dump, purely based on technical analysis and Bitcoin maker orders overview.

On November 12, I found the outcome of this analysis but yet was not sure if its the right time for longs due to the buzz around the market.

This was a price analysis posted on November 24, where doing an analysis I focused purely on technicals, getting rid of the printed noise.

The first, is of course the divergence between RSI and price, usually such divergence signals the reversal of the current trend.

The second is the MACD indicator, MACD line is about to cross the Signal line which in this case is a signal for an uptrend.

The third is Bollinger Bands , the channel is way too wide and for most cases, the price must find a range and stabilize, creating a narrow channel before it gains enough power for another move.

That is why I believe that the range between $17600 and $15900 would create a channel and stabilize buyers and sellers before taking the next impulsive move.

As of now, Bitcoin followed the path set in my BTCUSD review, as of now the price has broken the major dynamic resistance at $16750 and must close above this level to reach $17600 – $17900.

$17600 – $17900 level bears a major resistance, which most likely actuate major short orders and bring the price down to $16600. If Bitcoin keeps above $16600, the shorter than expected bullish period will be underway. However, if the $16600 support is broken, I will expect another leg down to $15300 – $15250.

Full Bitcoin analysis on TradingView.