Bitcoin Price Prediction: Historical Buy Signal Points to 200%+ Returns Ahead for BTC

Bitcoin (BTC) has jumped by 3% today and has accumulated an 8% gain in the past 30 days, as Iran announced that it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz following weeks of tense negotiations and hostile exchanges with the United States.

The market reacted enthusiastically to the news, and risky assets quickly rallied. As a result, even though this wasn’t a major price move, nearly $600 million worth of short positions got blown up on Friday, shortly after the announcement.

This strong squeeze is a major signal that the market is too one-sided at the time. We saw similar spikes in liquidations (but on the long side) last year, back when prices started to decline sharply.

Virtually every day, over $1 billion worth of longs evaporated as the price of BTC progressively dropped from its all-time high, and then after it crossed the $100,000 mark.

When even tiny moves manage to move the futures market this much, this increases the odds of a squeeze. We have been keeping an eye on key levels for BTC for weeks, like the $78,000 resistance.

Short-Term Target Hit at $78,000

This has been our target for the top crypto for various days now, and we even pitched a potential trading opportunity after the token bounced off a daily trend line support that offered a risk-reward of 2.5x.

Those who decided to get on board with that trade at $69,000 have already hit the second take-profit target during today’s session.

That said, our mid-term target for the token has not yet been reached. We expect BTC to break past this resistance level during the weekend if bullish momentum accelerates, and President Trump doesn’t decide to mess with Iran again.

If that happens, short liquidations could rise even further, setting the stage for a move toward $85,000, which is our “mean reversion” target.

Sentiment and Bitcoin’s On-Chain Metrics Recover

We are not yet at a point where we can say conclusively that this is the end of crypto’s bear market. However, several indicators seem to be favoring that view.

First of all, market sentiment bounced back strongly, as the Crypto Fear and Greed Index rose from a record low of 5 to 62 by Friday, meaning that investors have entered “Greed” mode.

This is the second time that the market has recovered from Extreme Fear to Greed, and that last time that happened was in April 2025, back when BTC rallied from around $82,000 to $126,000 in just a few months.

We are also seeing a strong recovery in Bitcoin MVRV Ratio, an on-chain metric that tracks the relationship between the token’s market value and realized value (RV). The RV corresponds to the value of all BTC tokens in circulation based on the price at which they were bought.

When the market value starts to exceed that, meaning an MVRV Ratio, that tends to mark the beginning of a bull market. Right now, this metric sits at -18% according to data from Santiment. Even though it is still negative, its value has been steadily rising since early February, back when it sat at -37%.

We are still at a fair distance from the zero line, but this could be an early indication that BTC is getting ready to take a U-turn, especially if geopolitical tensions ease, oil prices keep dropping, and macroeconomic projections start to improve.

Weekly Bitcoin Chart Shows Clear Historical “Buy” Signal

Heading to the weekly chart, we can see that a highly attractive historical “buy” signal showed up already in this higher time frame. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit a level that has marked previous cycle bottoms for Bitcoin.

The first time this happened was in 2018. Back then, the RSI dropped below 30, and BTC traded at around $3,200. Two years later, BTC hit a new all-time high at around $67,000, yielding a 2,088% return.

Meanwhile, the latest of these RSI signals came through in June 2022, right before FTX collapsed. Interest rates were high at that point, but macroeconomic conditions started to improve.

Initially, BTC dipped from $18,000 and $16,000 after the RSI crossed the 30 mark. However, a clear bullish divergence emerged back then, as the oscillator kept rising even though the price was dropping.

Fast forward two years and four months later, BTC yielded a 563% return after peaking at its current all-time high of $126,000.

How High Can BTC Go This Time?

We are currently at that same spot where the RSI touched 30 and is now rising above the 14-period moving average.

This has been quite a profitable buy signal in the past, and although we might not get the same returns as the last two times, as BTC has grown much bigger in terms of market cap, this seems like an attractive time to buy for long-term investors.

In addition, the price just tagged the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), which has also acted as a strong support multiple times during previous bearish cycles.

How much could BTC yield this time? We envision a potential long-term rally to $150,000 in the mid-term and $200,000 over the next three years if this turns out to be the end of this latest bearish cycle.

A Second Buy Signal Could Be About to Pop Up in the Daily Chart

Heading to the daily chart, we are keeping a close eye on Bitcoin’s behavior at this $77,000 level, as this is a key resistance area from which the top crypto has retreated strongly in the past.

We still have a trend line support below at around $69,000 and a near-term former supply area at $75,000 that could act as a cushion if BTC pulls back once again.

This sell wall needs to be broken to get this rally going toward our next target, which is the $85,000 level.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 68, confirming that bulls have taken control of the price action and that momentum is on the side of buyers.

Meanwhile, a break above $85,000 would confirm a trend reversal and, potentially, the end of this bearish cycle. At that point, we will have a positive alignment between the weekly buy signal we discussed earlier and the daily price action.

Moreover, our signals system could be ready to send its second “buy” today as volumes surged above their moving average. Today’s candle needs to close with a small upper wick to get that done.

We will update you next week if that buy signal pops up. If it happens, it would be a strong sign of institutional participation in this price move.

Paired with improving sentiment, a high-time frame “buy”, and a break above $77,000, all the evidence would point to a bullish long-term outlook for the top crypto.