Solana Price News: SOL Faces 30% Downside Risk After Failing to Break Past $90

Solana (SOL) has been the most heavily battered altcoin in the top 5 with a year-to-date (YTD) loss exceeding 42% as demand for meme coins has waned.

Investors have been very selective with the tokens they support during what we believe are the early stages of crypto’s next bull market.

We have seen altcoins like Zcash (ZEC), Hyperliquid (HYPE), and BNB (BNB) capture most investors’ attention, partially due to the launch of the first exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for these last two in the United States.

However, the Solana blockchain, alongside Ethereum (ETH), has little to show for in terms of technical progress or the advancement of existing trends like DeFi, TradFi, or even meme coins.

DEX Volumes Drop by 62% as Meme Coin Trading Is No Longer a Thing

Although transaction volumes within Solana rose to a new weekly record at 959 million in early February, they have progressively retreated and have plateaued in the past few weeks at around 700 million.

Meanwhile, decentralized exchanges in the Solana ecosystem have experienced a steady drop in transaction volumes as well, as traders seem to have lost their interest in meme coins after getting burned during the latest bear market.

On-chain data shows that DEX volumes are down 62% since their January uptick. Back then, they rose to $111 billion. However, the metric finished last month at just $42 billion.

Solana’s Future Performance Could Diverge from That of Top Altcoins Again

Heading to the weekly chart, we have identified key ‘macro’ areas for Solana at around $95 – $100, followed by the next support in line, which would be $50.

The price action retested that $95 resistance recently, and we can see that it clearly rejected it. This sets the stage for a major decline to 50%, which translates into a 30% downside risk for the token.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms that momentum is on the side of bears, as the oscillator stands at 32. Whenever it drops below 40, that tends to be interpreted as a sell signal.

There is still a chance that SOL could bounce back once it hits its cycle low of $67. However, since the project has lost its competitive edge, we could see a replay of what happened during the September 2025 rally.

Back then, even though both ETH and BNB made new all-time highs, SOL failed to catch up as the project is struggling to attract apps with real-world use cases other than speculative trading of meme coins.

Solana Broke Out of a 5-Month-Long Consolidation

Looking at the daily chart, Solana had spent months in consolidation. The price bounced between $77 and $97 during this period, but has now broken that pattern.

This bearish breakout suggests the continuation of the previous downtrend and further confirms that Solana could be on track to hit our “macro” target of $50 per coin.

The RSI is already hitting oversold in this lower time frame, which means that the odds of a technical rebound are high. However, we expect this weakness to persist.

Even though other tokens may recover, we don’t see that kind of future for SOL unless the project unveils new ecosystem growth initiatives.

Solana is in the danger zone of becoming the next Cardano unless it can prove that it can attract developers who are serious about finding new and revolutionary use cases for its low-cost L1 blockchain.