Bitcoin Weekly Outlook: US–Iran Tensions and PPI Data Threaten Downside

Bitcoin (BTC) opened the week under pressure as renewed escalation in the US–Iran conflict rattled risk sentiment.

The cryptocurrency dropped 4.5% over the weekend after US President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post on Sunday that the blockade would remain in place.

He added that peace talks had broken down because Iran refused to give up its nuclear program, which he called the only issue that “really mattered.” Bitcoin was wobbling between gains and losses on Monday, while holding above the $70,000 support level.

US PPI Data in Focus as Inflation Risks Resurface

Markets now turn to fresh US inflation data, with the March Producer Price Index (PPI) due on April 14 at 0830 ET.

Consensus forecasts point to a ~0.3% month-over-month rise in both headline and core PPI, marking a cooldown from February’s hotter-than-expected 0.7% surge.

The projected slowdown suggests some easing in upstream price pressures, but producer inflation remains relatively sticky on a yearly basis, underscoring lingering cost risks across the economy.

The timing of the release is critical. Oil prices have spiked sharply amid renewed US–Iran tensions, increasing the likelihood that energy-driven cost pressures could filter into broader inflation data in the coming months.

For Bitcoin, the setup presents asymmetric risk. A stronger-than-expected PPI print would reinforce the “higher for longer” rate narrative, tightening liquidity expectations and weighing on risk assets.

Conversely, a softer reading could provide short-term relief, but may struggle to fully offset the inflationary impulse coming from elevated crude prices.

Strategy’s STRC Bid May Absorb War-Driven Selling

While Iran-driven macro stress is pressuring Bitcoin, Strategy Inc. continues to provide a structural bid through its STRC ATM program.

The firm raises capital by selling STRC shares and uses the proceeds to buy BTC, effectively turning equity demand into spot accumulation. Recent estimates show ~9,173 BTC bought last week, with a two-week total above 9,200 BTC.

For context, Bitcoin’s post-halving issuance stands at roughly ~450 BTC per day (~3,150 BTC per week). That means Strategy alone absorbed nearly 3x weekly supply last week.

This steady flow can help offset selling pressure during risk-off events.

However, the mechanism depends on STRC trading near its $100 par value. If it drops below, issuance slows, weakening the Strategy’s ability to support BTC in the short term.

Bitcoin Symmetrical Triangle Risks $67K Retest

Bitcoin is consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle, defined by lower highs and higher lows, signaling a volatility squeeze ahead of a breakout move.

Price is currently testing the 20-day EMA, which is acting as immediate short-term support. This level is critical for near-term direction.

A break below the 20-day EMA would likely confirm weakening momentum and open the door for a move toward the triangle’s lower boundary, with a downside target near $67,000 based on recent support clusters.

On the flip side, holding above the 20-EMA keeps the structure intact and shifts focus toward the upper trendline resistance. A successful push higher could see BTC retest the $72,000 area, which aligns with recent rejection zones.

In short, the triangle is nearing resolution, with the 20-EMA acting as the trigger level for the next directional move.