BTC Bears to Target Sub-$27,000 on Anti-Crypto US Administration

Key Insights:

• On Sunday, BTC rounded off a bearish with a bearish session, falling by 0.77% to end the day at $27,612.
• There were no crypto events to influence, leaving regulatory scrutiny, an anti-crypto US administration, and Fed Fear to weigh.
• The technical indicators are bearish, signaling a return to $25,000.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.77%. Partially reversing a 1.98% gain from Saturday, BTC ended the week down by 8.83% to $27,612. Significantly, BTC fell short of the $28,000 handle for the second time since March 28.

Bearish throughout the Sunday session, BTC fell from an opening price of $27,827 to a mid-afternoon low of $27,333. Finding support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $27,364, BTC revisited the $27,700 handle before easing back.

Fed Fear and US Regulatory Risk Delivered a Bearish Week

It was a quiet Sunday session, with no crypto events to move the dial. The lack of events left investors to consider the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, risks to the US economy, and the US crypto regulatory landscape.

On Friday, US private sector PMIs eased immediate fears of a US recession but increased the chances of a June rate hike. Fears of a Fed-fueled economic recession weighed on buyer appetite, with the US Administration’s anti-crypto drive and the SEC’s regulation-by-enforcement mantra continuing to pressure the broader crypto market.

In the final hour, a bearish NASDAQ mini pegged BTC back from a late recovery. It is a big week ahead for the global financial markets. Q1 US GDP numbers on Thursday will set the mood before inflation figures on Friday. Corporate earnings will also need consideration, with big names delivering results this week.

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet Monday session, with no US economic indicators to draw interest. The lack of stats will leave the crypto news wires to influence. The Fed entered the blackout period on Saturday, leaving the markets in the hands of the US economic calendar.

However, SEC v Ripple case-related chatter and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will influence. Regulatory activity and US lawmaker chatter will also draw interest.

Following the European Parliament vote on MiCA, crypto market advocates may find a voice and push Capitol Hill to address the current US regulatory landscape and the SEC’s regulation by-enforcement mantra.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was down 0.46% to $27,486. A bearish start to the day saw BTC fall from an opening price of $27,611 to a low of $27,486.

BTC Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

BTC needs to move through the $27,591 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $28,848. A move through the Sunday high of $27,827 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $28,085. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $28,579.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $27,354 in play. However, barring another data-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$27,000. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $27,097 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $26,603.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was bearish signals. BTC sat below the 200-day EMA ($28,094). After the Saturday bearish cross, the 50-day EMA pulled further back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, sending bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($27,848) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($28,085) and the 200-day EMA ($28,094). A breakout from the 50-day EMA ($28,488) would bring R3 ($28,579) into play. However, failure to move through the 200-day EMA (28,094) would leave S1 ($27,354) and sub-$27,000 in view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.