BTC Eyes a Return to $19,500 to Target $20,000 and Deliver an ETH Boost

Key Insights:

• After a bullish Sunday session, bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) found further price support this morning.
• A sharp pickup in risk appetite, supported by a more orderly UK Gilt market, provided a bullish morning session.
• However, the technical indicators remain bearish, with Fed fear continuing to peg the pair back from more meaningful gains.

On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 1.03%. Reversing a 0.60% loss from Saturday, BTC ended the week down 0.91% to $19,267. Notably, BTC fell short of $20,000 for the ninth consecutive session while avoiding a return to sub-$19,000.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC slip to an early low of $19,067. Avoiding the First Major Support Level (S1) at $18,966, BTC rose to a late high of $19,428. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,202 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $19,332. However, falling short of $19,500, BTC slipped back through R2 to end the week at $19,267.

Ethereum (ETH) rallied by 2.43% on Sunday. Reversing a 1.62% loss from Saturday, ETH ended the week down 1.28% to $1,306.

Bullish from the start of the Sunday session, ETH rose from an early morning low of $1,275 to a late high of $1,316. ETH broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,297. However, coming up short of the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,318, ETH eased back to end the week at sub-$1,310.

There were no events to deliver the bullish Sunday session, leaving dip buyers to return ahead of a relatively quiet week on the US economic calendar.

The upside came despite rising bets of 75-basis point Fed rate hikes in November and December. Hopes are that the Fed will take its foot off the gas once the economy begins to show cracks.

Through this morning’s session, a return to order in the UK Gilt market supported a pickup in market risk appetite to deliver support. Ahead of the US opening bell, the NASDAQ Mini was up 139.25 points.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 1.16% to $19,490. A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $19,166 before rising to a high of $19,565.

BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,441.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid a fall through R1 and the $19,254 pivot to retarget the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $19,615. A BTC return to $19,500 would signal a bullish afternoon session. However, today’s US stats and central bank chatter would need to be crypto-friendly.

In the case of an extended rally, the Third Major Resistance Level (R2) at $19,976 and $20,000 would likely come into play.

A fall through R1 and the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,080 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,893 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $18,532.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $19,387.

The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA to deliver bullish signals.

BTC needs to move through R2 ($19,615) and the 200-day EMA ($19,635) to bring R3 ($19,976) and $20,000 into play. However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($19,387) and the 50-day EMA ($19,295) would give the bears a run at S1 ($19,080).

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was up 1.10% to $1,320. A choppy morning saw ETH fall to an early low of $1,295 before rising to a high of $1,326.

The First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,323 capped the upside early on.

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to avoid the $1,299 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,323. However, investor sentiment would need to remain bullish to support a breakout afternoon session.

In the event of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,340 and $1,350 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,381.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,282 into view. However, barring another crypto sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,280 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,258.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,217.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. Ethereum sat above 100-day EMA, currently at $1,318. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A move through R1 ($1,323) and R2 ($1,340) would give the bulls a run at the 200-day EMA ($1,366). However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($1,318) and the 50-day EMA ($1,302) would give the bears a run at S1 ($1,282).