BTC Fear & Greed Index Holds Steady Despite BTC Avoiding Sub-$16,000

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.04%, ending a two-day mini-winning streak.
• While FTX contagion fear subsided this week, contagion risk and regulatory risk remained crypto headwinds, limiting any upside.
• The Fear & Greed Index held steady at 20/100, reflecting investor angst over the FTX collapse and likely shift in the regulatory landscape.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.04%. Partially reversing a 2.44% gain from Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $16,606. Notably, BTC avoided sub-$16,000 for the second consecutive session.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early morning high of $16,804. Coming up against the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,807, BTC fell to an early afternoon low of $16,463. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,293, BTC revisited $16,669 before falling back into the red.

It was a quiet Thursday session, with the US Thanksgiving Holiday leaving trading volumes on the lower side.

Despite the quiet session, FTX contagion risk eased further on Thursday, preventing a BTC return to sub-$16,000. Following the news of FTX holding $1.24 billion in cash reserves, hopes remain that debtors will locate more FTX assets to reduce the burden on creditors.

On Thursday, news of Binance CEO CZ pledging $1 billion for FTX-impacted crypto firms was market positive. In an interview with Bloomberg TV, CZ also said that Binance would make another bid for Voyager Digital.

Following the FOMC meeting minutes from Wednesday, there were no US economic indicators for investors to consider on Thursday. With the US Thanksgiving Holidays, the US markets will close early today.

While the NASDAQ could provide direction, a lack of US Economic Indicators will likely leave the crypto market in the hands of FTX-linked news updates.

The Fear & Greed Index Holds Steady at 20/100

Today, the BTC Fear & Greed Index held steady at 20/100. A range-bound BTC session left the Index flat for the day. BTC failed to revisit $17,000, reflecting the effects of FTX contagion risk and increased regulatory risk on investor sentiment.

Until there is clarity on the total impact of the FTX collapse on the crypto market, we expect the Index to hover within the Extreme Fear zone.

While sitting at 20/100, avoiding sub-20/100 remains the key for the BTC bulls. A fall to sub-20/100 would see BTC face the risk of sub-$10,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.52% to $16,520. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $16,617 before falling to a low of $16,520.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $16,624 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,786 and the Thursday high of $16,804. A return to $16,800 would signal a bullish session. However, FTX-linked updates have to be market-friendly to support a breakout session.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $16,965 and resistance at $17,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $17,306.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,445 in play. Barring another extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,000. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $16,283 should limit the downside. However, negative FTX-related news could send BTC to sub-$15,000.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $15,942.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $16,554. The 50-day EMA flattened on the 200-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed signals.

A breakout from the 50-day EMA ($16,554) would support a move through R1 ($16,786) to target R2 ($16,965) and $17,000. However, a failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($16,554) would leave S1 ($16,445) in play.