Crude Oil Price Forecast: Key Resistance Challenges Bullish Momentum

Spike to Multi-Month High Tests Resistance Zone

Crude oil spiked to a 36-week high of $78.06 on Tuesday, triggering a long-term trendline break on the way to a key upside target zone around the prior peak of $78.44 from June. Following the resistance test, crude oil could face a sharp bearish reversal, similar to the one after the June spike high.

Measured Move and Potential Pivot

The day’s high may have completed a measured move nearly matching the rally that followed the 2024 low at $55.23. Once symmetry is seen in price, a potential pivot is disclosed. Nonetheless, a resistance zone lies from $78.44 to a lower swing high at $80.76 from January 2025. If the current advance extends, crude oil may move further into that potential resistance range.

200-Week Moving Average Remains Key Barrier

It is also important to review the relationship with the 200-week moving average, which was briefly exceeded during Tuesday’s rally. It remains an area of potential resistance since crude oil is on track to close the session below the moving average, now at $76.06. The 200-week average is a key trend indicator for crude oil. It first broke in July 2024 and was subsequently confirmed as resistance a couple of other times, including during the June 2025 advance. Therefore, it presents a potentially significant barrier to higher prices.

Extended Price Suggests Pullback Possible

Until the 200-week average is reclaimed, downward pressure on crude oil will continue. It confirms persistent trend resistance once more. While the 200-week average can eventually be reclaimed, another attempt would likely be more successful after a pullback and short-term consolidation, given that price is currently extended.

Time Symmetry Adds Technical Caution

There is another reason for caution regarding crude oil. Symmetry in time is associated with the bullish measured moves. The advance from the April 2025 low hit the peak of the advance in 52 trading days, while the current rally from the December low reached 53 days today. Once symmetry in time is observed, as with price, a potential pivot level is identified. This does not guarantee that a peak has been reached, but it provides additional technical evidence suggesting that Tuesday’s high may mark the end of the current advance.

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