BTC Fear & Greed Index Inches Higher Despite a Bearish BTC Session

Key Insights:

• On Friday, bitcoin (BTC) bucked the top ten crypto trend, falling by 0.59% to end the session at $19,299.
• Recession fears weighed on the NASDAQ 100, which pressured BTC through the second half of the day.
• However, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index rose from 20/100 to 24/100, with the broader market decoupling from the NASDAQ a likely factor.

On Friday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.59%. Partially reversing a 5.09% rally from Thursday, BTC ended the day at $19,299. While closing at $19,000 for the second time in four sessions, BTC fell short of $20,000 for the fifth consecutive session.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $19,512 before hitting reverse. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,832, BTC slid to an early afternoon low of $18,551. BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $18,685 before a late return to $19,000.

Investor sentiment towards the global economy and fears of a recession led BTC to sub-$19,000 before the partial recovery. PMI numbers from the Eurozone and the UK were dire, with the US private sector also in contraction. The NASDAQ 100 reflected the mood, falling by 1.80%.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Rises to 24 Despite BTC Loss

Today, the Fear & Greed Index increased from 20/100 to 24/100. The Index rose despite fears of a global economic recession. A late crypto market recovery suggested greater investor focus on monetary policy than the economic backdrop. Weak economic indicators could force central banks to take the foot off the gas.

Significantly, the Index avoided sub-20, supported by a BTC return to $19,000. The Index would need to form an upward trend to give BTC a run at $25,000.

In recent weeks, avoiding sub-20/100 has been the key. The bears will be eying a fall to sub-20/100 to signal a BTC slide to sub-$18,000. By contrast, the bulls will look for an Index return to 40/100 to support a move toward $25,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.72% to $19,161. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $19,315 before falling to a low of $19,085.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $19,121 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,690. A BTC move through the Friday high of $19,512 would support a bullish session. However, avoiding a return to sub-$19,000 would be the key this morning.

In the case of an extended rally, BTC should test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $20,082. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $21,043.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $18,729 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$18,000. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,160 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $17,199.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $19,407. The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish price signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($19,407) and R1 ($19,690) would give the bulls a run at the 100-day EMA ($19,790) and R2 ($20,082). The 200-day EMA sits at $20,366. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave BTC under pressure.

Trend Analysis

Looking at the trends, BTC would need a move through the August high of $25,203 and $25,500 to target the June high of $31,956. Avoiding a fall through the September low of $18,210 would support a move back towards $25,000.

However, the trend has turned bearish following Wednesday’s new September low. A fall through the September low of $18,210 would bring sub-$18,000 and the June low of $17,601 into play. A Fear & Greed Index return to 30/100 should support a shift in sentiment.