BTC in the Need of a Catalyst to Breakdown Resistance at $28,000

Bob Mason
Updated: Mar 26, 2023, 05:08 GMT+00:00

BTC found little direction on Saturday. While fears of a Deutsche Bank collapse eased, increased crypto scrutiny leaves the broader market under pressure.

BTC Tech Analysis - FX Empire

In this article:

Key Insights:

  • It was a bullish Saturday, with BTC rising by 0.06% to end the day at $27,478.
  • There were no crypto events to provide direction as investors considered the market events from the week.
  • The technical indicators remain bullish, with $30,000 still in view.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.06%. Following a 2.98% loss from Friday, BTC ended the day at $27,478. Despite the bullish session, BTC fell short of the $28,000 handle for the first time in seven sessions.

After a range-bound morning, BTC rose to a mid-afternoon high of $27,810. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $28,225, BTC fell to a late low of $27,164. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $26,849, BTC revisited the $27,500 handle before easing back.

Bitcoin Steadies Despite Lingering Headwinds

After a busy Friday session, there were no crypto events or external market forces to guide investors on Saturday.

The lack of events left BTC within a $650 range on Saturday as investors digested the events from the week.

An increasingly active SEC through regulation by enforcement and anti-crypto sentiment in the White House leaves crypto America in a precarious position. However, hopes of a Ripple victory in the SEC v Ripple case could materially change the landscape.

Easing fears of a Deutsche Bank (DB) collapse also provided crypto price support. There were no emergency meetings or calls by government officials for emergency assistance to avert the demise of a profitable and well-capitalized bank. The silence likely delivered investor comfort.

However, headwinds linger, with Binance and Coinbase (COIN) under intensifying regulatory scrutiny. The is also the ever-present threat of a European bank collapsing in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank bankruptcies. With investors considering Europe a crypto-friendly continent, a regional financial crisis could affect investor appetite.

The Day Ahead

Updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case and regulatory and lawmaker activity will be focal points. Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news also needs consideration.

However, investors should continue to monitor the news wires for banking sector-related news, which could test bitcoin’s newly discovered safe-haven status.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was down 0.04 at $27,466. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $27,493 before easing back.

BTC holds steady.
BTCUSD 260323 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $27,484 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $27,804 and the Saturday high of $27,810. A return to $27,500 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $28,130 and resistance at $28,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $28,776.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $27,158 in play. However, barring a crypto event-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$26,500. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $26,838 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $26,192.

BTC support levels in play below the pivot.
BTCUSD 260323 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($27,205). The 50-day EMA moved further away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.

A hold above the 50-day EMA ($27,205) would support a breakout from R1 ($27,804) to target R2 ($28,130) and $28,500. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($27,205) and S1 ($27,158) would give the bears a run at S2 ($26,838). A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.

EMAs remain bullish.
BTCUSD 260323 4 Hourly Chart

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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