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BTC Spot ETF-Related Chatter Leaves Sub-$29,000 in Play

By:
Bob Mason
Published: Aug 14, 2023, 01:17 UTC

ETF chatter did the rounds on Sunday, with one former SEC official expecting the SEC to only consider Spot ETFs in the event of a 2024 Republican Party win.

BTC Technical Analysis - FX Empire

In this article:

Key Insights:

  • BTC extended the losing streak to five sessions on Sunday, falling 0.23% to end the day at $29,586.
  • Spot BTC ETF-related chatter left BTC short of $30,000 for a second consecutive session.
  • The near-term technical indicators remain bearish, signaling a return to sub-$28,500.

On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.23%. Following a 0.76% loss on Saturday, BTC ended the week up 0.32% to $29,586. Significantly, BTC extended the losing streak to five sessions.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Actions

This morning, BTC was up 0.03% to $29,595. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $29,606 before easing back.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC sitting below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. However, BTC sat above the 50-day ($29,562) and 200-day ($27,377) EMAs, sending bullish near and longer-term price signals. Notably, the 50-day EMA widened from the 200-day EMA, signaling an upward trend.

However, looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 47.47 reading reflects bearish sentiment. The RSI signals a fall through the 50-day EMA to bring sub-$28,500 and the $27,500 – $26,850 support band into view. A hold above the 50-day EMA ($29,562) would give the bulls a run at the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band.

BTC Daily Chart sends bullish price signals.
BTCUSD 140823 Daily Chart

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, BTC remains below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. BTC also sits below the 50-day ($29,731) and 200-day ($29,680) EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.

Significantly, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, a bearish signal. A move through the EMAs would support a run at the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. However, a bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would bring sub-$28,500 and the $27,500 – $26,850 support band into view.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 40.62 reflects bearish sentiment, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI signals a return to sub-$28,500 to give the bears a run at the $27,500 – $26,850 support band.

4-Hourly Chart sends bearish near-term price signals.
BTCUSD 140823 4 Hourly Chart

ETF Chatter Leaves BTC at Sub-$30,000 for a Second Session

It was a quiet Sunday session, leaving investors to respond to ETF-related chatter and SEC v Coinbase case-related news.

Uncertainty surrounding the SEC approval of one, some, or all of the spot BTC ETF applications continued to leave BTC in limbo.

On Sunday, former SEC official John Reed Stark shared his views on the likelihood of the SEC approving spot BTC ETFs, saying,

“My take is that the current SEC will NOT approve a bitcoin spot ETF application for a range of compelling reasons.”

Stark went on to say,

“However, I also believe that the crypto-regulatory tides could shift exponentially after Election Day.”

Stark went on to discuss the partisan divide on Capitol Hill and the likely impact of a Republican victory at the next US Presidential Election, saying,

“If Hester Pierce becomes acting Chair of the SEC, given her lengthy track record of dissent and opposition to most crypto-related SEC actions, the world should expect that most US SEC crypto-related enforcement and most crypto-related SEC disruption would grind to a screeching halt.”

If Stark’s view proves true, the SEC is using delay tactics and giving other parties opportunities to provide the SEC reasons to decline the ARK Invest spot BTC ETF application, among others.

Uncertainty surrounding the likely outcomes of the SEC v Binance and SEC v Coinbase cases remained headwinds.

Following the Amicus Curiae brief filings, SEC v Coinbase case-related news will move the dial. A Court ruling to dismiss the SEC charges against Coinbase should fuel a breakout rally. US lawmakers would likely respond to a second SEC loss in the Courts.

The Day Ahead

It should be a busier Monday session. SEC v Ripple-related chatter, ETF updates, and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will move the dial.

US lawmaker chatter and SEC activity would also need consideration after the Amicus Curiae brief filings.

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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