BTC to Target $29,000 or Face Sub-$27,500 on Regulatory Angst

Key Insights:

• BTC had a bearish start to the second quarter, falling by 0.06% to end the day at $28,443.
• News of Bittrex planning to shut down its US operations weighed on investor sentiment.
• However, the technical indicators are bullish, with $30,000 in view.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.06%. Partially reversing a 1.57% gain from Friday, BTC ended the day at $28,443. Despite the bearish session, BTC avoided sub-$28,000 for the first time since June 2022.

A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $28,817. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $28,906, BTC fell to a mid-afternoon low of $28,201. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $27,759, BTC revisited the $28,500 handle before easing back into the red.

Bittrex US Exit Leaves BTC on the Back Foot

News of crypto exchange Bittrex announcing plans to shut down its US operations weighed on investor sentiment.

Bittrex announced the news on Twitter, saying,

“Bittrex US has taken the difficult decision to cease its operations effective as of 30 April 2023. All their customer funds are safe and available for customers to withdraw. The decision does not affect Bittrex Global, which only services customers outside of the US, and there will be no change to our service offering.”

The news was a reminder of the regulatory landscape in the US, as US regulators target crypto exchanges with greater intensity.

The Day Ahead

After a range-bound start to the second quarter, regulatory activity and US lawmaker chatter will remain the focal point.

In recent weeks, SEC and CFTC activity have shown their intent while lawmakers stand back despite the contrasting classifications of cryptos as commodities and securities.

However, investors should continue to monitor the crypto news wires for updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case. Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will also need consideration.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was down 0.13% to $28,406. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $28,487 before falling to a low of $28,366.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $28,487 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $28,773 and the Saturday high of $28,817. A return to $28,500 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $29,103 and resistance at $29,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $29,719.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $28,157 in play. However, barring a crypto event-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$27,500. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $28,157 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $27,255.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($27,939). The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.

A hold above S1 ($28,157) and the 50-day EMA ($27,939) would support a breakout from R1 ($28,773) to target R2 ($29,103) and $29,500. However, a fall through S1 ($28,157) would bring the 50-day EMA ($27,810) and S2 ($27,871) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.