Cardano Price Prediction: Vasil Hard Fork Stats Leave sub-$0.40 in Play

Key Insights:

• ADA saw red for the fourth session from six as risk aversion hit the global financial markets.
• Sentiment towards the Vasil hard fork took a back seat, with investors shifting their focus to the more pressing matter of the Fed and the Jackson Hole Symposium.
• Technical indicators are bearish and pointing to sub-$0.40, with ADA sitting below the 50-day EMA.

On Monday, ADA fell by 0.22%. Partially reversing a 2.44% gain from Sunday, ADA ended the day at $0.4620.

A bearish start to the day saw ADA slide from a morning high of $0.463 to a late morning low of $.0.438. ADA fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4483 before a final hour rebound to $0.462.

A shift in market focus to the Jackson Hole Symposium weighed on ADA and the broader market. The NASDAQ 100 Mini spent the day in the red, with the NASDAQ 100 sliding by 2.55% to pressure crypto investor appetite.

However, this morning, the NASDAQ 100 Mini moved into positive territory to deliver much-needed support. The NASDAQ 100 Mini was up 38 points.

Cardano Vasil Hard Fork Progress Remains Slow

Progress towards the delayed Vasil hard fork continues, though at a snail’s pace. With 75% of nodes needing to be on the latest version to support the implementation of the hard fork, a reported 33% of the Cardano SPO nodes have upgraded to v1.35.3.

Cardano co-founder Charles Hoskinson tweeted some stern words in an attempt to push SPOs to upgrade to v1.35.3. However, Hoskinson took a more apologetic tone over the weekend, with assurances that the latest version has been through vigorous testing.

From an ADA price perspective, the number of nodes upgrading to the latest version will need to climb to deliver price support.

ADA Price Action

At the time of writing, ADA was flat at $0.4620.

Technical Indicators

Avoiding the $0.4543 pivot would support a run at the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4707. ADA would need support from the broader market for a return to $0.47.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, ADA could test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4793 and resistance at $0.4850. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.5043.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4457 into play. In an extended sell-off, ADA would likely test the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4293 and support at $0.4250.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.4043.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.4900. Today, the 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA. Following Monday’s bearish cross, the 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA, both ADA price negatives.

A further pullback of the 50-day EMA from the 100-day EMA would bring the Major Support Levels into play. However, an ADA move through R1 ($0.4707) and R2 ($0.4793) would give the bulls a look at the 50-day EMA.