Central and eastern Europe will recover next year but output will return to pre-pandemic levels only after 2021 in most cases. Monetary and fiscal stimulus will help the rebound, but higher debt and external risks remain concerns for certain countries.
Download Scope Ratings’ 2021 Central and Eastern Europe Sovereign Outlook
We forecast real GDP in the EU’s 11 member states in central and eastern Europe (CEE-11) to grow next year by 4.1% after a contraction of 5.3% in 2020. Meanwhile, Russia’s economic recovery in 2021 is set to be sluggish (2.5%), following a softer contraction in 2020 (-4.5%) compared with that of many other major economies around the world. In Turkey (growth forecast of 0.7% in 2020 before 6.2% in 2021), the risk to the economy’s external-sector stability remains real.
The Covid-19 crisis has proven exceptionally difficult for the CEE region on several fronts, from unprecedented supply and demand shocks to regional services sectors to disruptions to global supply chains in which several countries are heavily exposed – such as those with large automotive sectors. However, enhanced economic resilience of recent years has allowed EU CEE economies to be better positioned to cope with the crisis of 2020 than over 2008-09 with the global financial crisis.
The second set of lockdowns are likely to have halted or reversed many recoveries over the winter period, following the rebound in economic activity mid-year. However, Scope expects a renewed, uneven recovery to be underway by the spring of 2021 even though it will not be until after 2021 that output returns to pre-crisis levels in most economies of the region.
Uncertainty will remain elevated for some period to come, with much hinging on progress in distributing coronavirus vaccine, though we see some encouraging economic tailwinds, notably an agreement around EU funds after Poland and Hungary’s earlier veto threat was pulled.
Regional central banks are unlikely to tighten monetary policy any time soon as they seek to sustain the recovery amid generally benign inflationary conditions. Here, Turkey is an exception – needing to maintain a tight rates policy to regain market confidence. We generally expect less volatility in regional currencies next year compared with 2020 as economic growth recovers.
We identify several other important themes for 2021:
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Levon Kameryan is Analyst in Sovereign and Public Sector ratings at Scope Ratings GmbH.
Levon graduated with a M.Sc. in International Economics and Public Policy from the University of Mainz in 2016. Levon worked previously as an economist at the Central Bank of Armenia.