Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) Price Forecast: Weekly Breakout Sparks Recovery Attempt

Two-Year Low and Early Reversal Signals

Shares of Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit a two-year low of $139.46 on February 12, undercutting the prior April 2025 low of $142.58 and closing below it on a daily basis. That $142.58 level had marked a key support shelf for the stock, and the brief undercut and subsequent behavior raise the possibility of seller exhaustion. Bullish divergence is visible in the RSI oscillator, reflecting a potential shift from bearish to bullish momentum. If a recovery develops from the recent low, the prior $142.58 support zone becomes an important area to monitor for renewed demand.

Falling Channel Support and Weekly Breakout Trigger

Additional support context comes from the falling trend channel. The lower boundary of the channel, extended by -150%, marked the support area where price recently stabilized. This technical confluence supports the case for a near-term rebound, but confirmation was needed. That confirmation began with a bullish hammer candlestick on the weekly chart last week, followed by a breakout above last week’s high at $167.92. On Tuesday, the weekly breakout triggered, adding further evidence of a developing reversal.

The broader context underscores the significance of this bounce attempt. COIN declined by $305.28, or 68.66%, from its July 2025 record high of $444.65. This week’s weekly breakout also triggered a reclaim of the 200-week moving average above $169.34. The near-simultaneous weekly hammer breakout and 200-week average reclaim strengthen the case for a tradable recovery phase.

Structural Context and Upside Targets

Structurally, the $444.65 peak briefly exceeded the IPO-day high of $429.54 from April 2021, but that breakout failed on a closing basis. The failure led to a bearish correction triggered by a double top breakdown and a loss of the 50-week average trend support. With price now reversing from the lower boundary of the falling channel, the top of the channel becomes a potential upside target.

Near-term resistance is identified around the falling 20-day average at $186.31, which aligns with the center line of the falling channel. That center line acted as support several times during the decline, adding technical relevance as resistance on a rebound. Beyond that, the 50-day average at $224.60 has tracked the top channel line since November and defines a higher potential resistance zone. It can be used as a proxy for the top trendline for now.

On a larger time frame, COIN broke below a long-term uptrend line that connects to the April 2025 low at $142.58. A sustained bullish weekly reversal would represent the beginning of the first pullback to that broken trendline as resistance. If that process unfolds, prior lows near $225.47 may eventually be tested as resistance before any advance completes.

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