Comex Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – February 17, 2017 Forecast

April Comex Gold futures are trading higher on Friday. Lower U.S. Treasury yields and weakness in the U.S. equity markets are helping to underpin gold prices. Investors are also buying gold because of political uncertainty in the United States and Europe. They are concerned about Trump’s ability to run a government and set in motion his economic agenda that includes lower corporate taxes, relaxed regulations and aggressive fiscal spending. The main concerns in Europe are over the upcoming elections in Netherland, France and Germany, later in the year.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. Momentum is also trending higher. This has put gold in a position to overtake the previous top at $1246.60. A trade through this top will reaffirm the uptrend.

The market is also trading on the strong side of a pair of 50% levels at $1235.60 and $1232.50, giving gold an upside bias today.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $1243.30 and the intraday uptrend, the direction of the gold market the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending angle at $1243.10.

Overtaking $1243.10 will put the market in a position to challenge the main top at $1246.60. This move will reaffirm the uptrend and could drive the market into the steep uptrending angle at $1249.50. Overtaking this angle will put the market in an extremely bullish position.

A sustained move under $1243.10 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to labored break because of potential support at $1239.60, $1235.60 and $1233.50.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at $1243.10 the rest of the session. This will tell us if the buying is increasing or if the sellers are regaining control. Also watch the direction of the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields and the equity markets. There are no major economic reports today so the direction of the market will likely be determined by the price action in these three financial markets.