Comex Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – February 27, 2017 Forecast

April Comex gold futures are trading slightly lower shortly ahead of the regular session opening. The market is trading inside Friday’s range which suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. The volatility is likely to pick up after Trump delivers his speech before Congress on Tuesday’s night. Also watch for lower than average volume.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. Traders may try to establish support at the old top at $1246.60. This would indicate that strong buying drove the market higher and not just buy stops.

The minor trend will turn down on a trade through $1226.80 and the main trend on a trade through $1217.50.

The main range is $1343.90 to $1127.20. Its retracement zone is $1235.60 to $1261.10. Gold is currently trading inside this zone. It is controlling the longer-term direction of the market.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $1256.40, the direction of the gold market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at $1261.10.

A sustained move over $1261.10 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a breakout into the main downtrending angle at $1270.90. There could be a technical bounce on the first test of this angle, but it is also the trigger point for a strong breakout move since the next major downtrending angle doesn’t come in until $1307.40.

A failure to overcome $1261.10 will signal the presence of sellers. This could drive gold back into the uptrending angle at $1245.50. If this price fails as support then look for a possible acceleration into the major 50% level at $1235.60, followed by an uptrending angle at $1231.50.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at $1261.10. This price is controlling the short-term and longer-term direction of the market. However, be careful buying strength or selling weakness because of the expected below average volume. Make sure you have volume on your side.