Comex Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – November 2, 2015 Forecast

December Comex Gold futures are trading slightly lower during the pre-market session. The market sold off shortly after the opening, but then quickly recovered to move back to unchanged. Gold is currently trading inside a major retracement zone. Trader reaction to this zone will determine the near-term direction of the market.

Last month featured a two-sided trade. An early rally was fueled by a weaker-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. This report shifted the odds of a Fed rate hike from December to March. Later, in the month, a hawkish Fed monetary policy statement shifted the odds of a December rate hike back to 50/50.

Because of the conflicting fundamentals, the market begins the month in a neutral state. This is evidenced by the trade inside the retracement zone. Gold traders are also watching the U.S. Dollar. Both Gold and dollar traders will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report because the strength of this report will influence the Fed decision to raise rates in December or wait until possibly March.

Technically, the main trend is down according to the daily swing chart.

The main range is $1103.80 to $1191.70. Its retracement zone at $1147.80 to $1137.40 is currently being tested. Trader reaction to this zone will determine the near-term direction of the market.

Based on Friday’s close at $1141.40, the first upside target is a long-term uptrending angle at $1145.80. This is followed closely by the 50% level at $1147.80. Overtaking this level and sustaining the move will indicate the presence of buyers.

If buyers come in on a move over $1147.80 then look for a possible acceleration into a downtrending angle at $1159.10.

A sustained move under $1137.40 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target a long-term uptrending angle at $1124.80.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at $1147.80 and $1137.40 today. Trader reaction to these levels will tell us whether the bulls or the bears are in control. Look for a bullish tone to develop on a sustained move over $1147.80 and a bearish tone to develop on a sustained move under $1137.40.