Comex Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – June 9, 2017 Forecast

August Comex Gold futures closed lower on Thursday on the heels of a rebound in the U.S. Dollar and during the testimony of former U.S. FBI director James Comey before the Senate Intelligence committee. Traders are now awaiting the outcome of the U.K. elections.

Gold lost ground to the Euro which helped support the Dollar Index after the European Central Bank cut its forecast for inflation and said that policymakers had not discussed scaling back its massive bond-buying program.

The precious metal also fell during Comey’s testimony, suggesting investors felt there was nothing to indicate that President Trump would be charged with obstruction of justice. Investors weren’t spooked by the proceedings and most seemed to be worried about whether Trump will be allowed to continue to pursue his economic agenda without any distractions.

The British Pound fell early Thursday after an exit poll said Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its majority in the British Parliament, ceding big gains to Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party. The weaker Sterling is helping to support the U.S. Dollar Index. Gold is also trading slightly higher on concerns this news may disrupt Brexit negotiations.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending higher. A trade through $1298.80 will signal a resumption of the buying while a move through $1300.30 will change the main trend to up. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside because the next target comes in at $1345.50.

Last week’s close was $1280.20. A close on Friday under this level will produce a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The main range is $1345.20 to $1217.80. Its retracement zone at $1281.50 to $1296.50 is the primary upside target. Gold has been straddling this zone all week. Trader reaction to this zone will set the longer-term trend of the market.

The short-term range is $1217.80 to $1298.80. If the selling pressure resumes on Friday, its retracement zone at $1258.30 to $1248.70 will become the primary downside target.

Forecast

Based on Thursday’s close at $1279.50, the direction of the gold market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at $1281.50.

A sustained move over $1281.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could generate enough upside momentum to challenge the main Fibonacci level at $1296.50, the minor top at $1298.00 and the April 17, 2017 main top at $1300.30.

Crossing to the strong side of the uptrending angle at $1301.80 will put gold in a bullish position with the next major target coming in at $1345.20.

A sustained move under $1281.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next targets the uptrending angle at $1259.80, the short-term 50% level at $1258.30 and the short-term Fibonacci level at $1248.70.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at $1281.50 all session. Trader reaction to this level will tell us whether the buyers have returned or if the sellers are increasing their pressure.