Comex High Grade Copper Futures (HG) Technical Analysis – August 14, 2015 Forecast

September Comex High Grade Copper futures have settled into a range after a volatile week which saw the market post a closing price reversal top and closing price reversal bottom just one day apart. The price action was trigger by three consecutive devaluations by the People’s Bank of China. Despite the choppy, two-sided trade, however, the market is in a position to post a potentially bullish closing price reversal on the weekly chart. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 week rally.

On Wednesday, copper formed a closing price reversal bottom at 2.2925. The strong close also put the market on the bullish side of a pair of downtrending angles. On Thursday, the chart pattern was confirmed, giving the market a slight upside bias.

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2.4290 will turn the main trend to up. The new short-term range is 2.4290 to 2.2925. Its pivot at 2.3610 is controlling the short-term direction of the market. Trader reaction to this pivot will set the tone for the day.

The inability to overcome the pivot at 2.3610 will signal the presence of sellers. A break back under the pair of downtrending angles at 2.3090 and 2.3250 will be a sign that the selling is getting stronger. This could trigger a move into the reversal bottom at 2.2925.

Taking out 2.2925 will negate the closing price reversal bottom. This could create enough downside momentum to challenge the May 14, 2009 bottom at 2.2440.

A sustained move over 2.3610 will signal the presence of buyers. The first objective is the main top at 2.4290. Taking out this top will change the main trend to up. The next target is the next main top at 2.4460. Overcoming this top will reaffirm the uptrend.

The first major upside target over 2.4460 is a downtrending angle at 2.4900.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 2.3610. This will tell us whether the bulls or the bears are in control.