Comex High Grade Copper Futures (HG) Technical Analysis – October 3, 2014 Forecast

December Comex High Grade Copper failed to follow-through to the upside, following Wednesday’s potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. The market then turned “sellers”, triggering a break through the reversal bottom at 3.000, negating the chart pattern. The close near the low and under the June 12 bottom at 3.0095 puts the market in a weak position to start today’s session.

Today’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report could affect copper prices because of its relationship with the U.S. Dollar. Better-than-expected jobs data will be bullish for the dollar. This will be bearish for copper since the dollar-denominated commodity will become too expensive to foreign buyers.

Now that the market has closed below one support level at 3.0095, it should move to the next level which is the April 15 bottom at 2.9660.

Crossing to the weak side of the steep downtrending angle at 2.9520 will put the market in an even weaker position which could create enough downside momentum to fuel a drive into the March 19 bottom at 2.8845.

On the upside, retaking 3.0095 will be a sign of strength because it will indicate that yesterday’s weakness was triggered by sell stops rather than new selling pressure. If traders can sustain a move over 3.0095 then it may retrace into a downtrending angle from the 3.2120 top at 3.0820.

The tone of the market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 3.0095.