Comex High Grade Copper Price Futures (HG) Technical Analysis – August 24, 2017 Forecast

December Comex High Grade Copper futures are trading higher Thursday and in a position to challenge a three-year high. The catalysts behind the rally were signs of higher demand from top consumer China and a drop in London inventories.

July imports of refined copper to China rose 13 percent to 283,468 tonnes while ore and concentrate rose 3 percent.

Prices were also supported by a decline in LME inventories. On-warrant stocks –those not earmarked for delivery and therefore available to investors – have slid 42 percent this year.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $3.0360 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. This could trigger a rally into the October 29, 2014 main top at $3.0625.

A trade through $2.9850 will change the minor trend to down. This will be the first sign that the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels.

The current short-term range is $2.8935 to $3.0360. If the minor trend does change to down then look for the selling to extend into its retracement zone at $2.9650 to $2.9480.

The main trend will turn down on a move through $2.8935.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $3.0200, the direction of the copper market today will be determined by trader reaction to the main top at $3.0360.

Buyers can take out this top, sustain the move and go after $3.0625.

Sellers can defend $3.0360, perhaps leading to a test of the long-term uptrending angle at $2.9810. If this angle fails as support then the move may extend into at least $2.9650 to $2.9480.

Because of the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the market is in the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. This will occur if buyers take out $3.0360 then the market closes below $3.0030.