Copper Fundamental Analysis – November 25, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Copper added 9 points as traders took advantage of a dip in the dollar to buy up the commodity which was trading at a long term low. Copper is holding at 2.031. Palladium added $1.80 as the DeiselGate scandal seems controlled and moves behind the markets. Metals fell to multi-year lows on Monday, while a Saudi Arabian cabinet statement offered a brief respite for oil before it rejoined other commodities’ tumble on concerns about China’s economy and a strengthening dollar.

Investors are reticent to call a bottom to the slide as measures such as production cuts have not stemmed price falls in a market oversupplied with many commodities. Several base metals traded near multiyear lows as a stronger dollar adds to worries about weaker global demand. Many metals are priced in dollars and become more expensive to global buyers as it strengthens.

Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange last traded at $4,511 a ton, from the opening price of $4,480 per ton, after sinking to a 6 1/2-year low on Monday.

Aluminum last traded at $1,456 per ton, higher than the opening price of $1,438.50 a ton. The metal also slipped to a 6 1/2 -year low on Monday.

Nickel fell nearly 6 percent to its lowest since 2003 while copper hit its lowest in more than six years. Aluminium matched Friday’s low of $1,435, the weakest since 2009. LME nickel fell as far as $8,175 a tonne and was last down 5.38 percent at $8,335, while zinc slid 3 percent to $1,519 a tonne, having dropped below $1,500 last week for the first time since 2009.

Losses in nickel and zinc reflect weakness in China’s vast steel sector and come despite major Chinese zinc smelters saying they would slash output by 500,000 tonnes next year, almost a fifth of their output.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, November 25, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 11:00 Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 19:00 US 13bn 5-year note

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Sek 4bn 1% Nov 2026 bond

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 17:30 US Usd 35bn 2-year FRN

Nov 25 19:00 US Usd 29bn 7-year note

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Sek 5bn 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden 1.5% Nov 2023 bond exchange, 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs

Nov 27 N/A Spain Announces details of 03 Dec

Nov 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction