Copper Fundamental Forecast – September 2, 2016

Copper edged up 11 points to 2.088 after Chinese official manufacturing PMI reported better than expected. Base metals posted generally some gains on Wednesday in spite of stronger risk-aversion. But aluminum and nickel finished in negative territory, probably driven by some-profit taking amid investors’ fears of negative macro surprises. Precious metals were under selling pressure, in part in response to a steeper expected path of Fed funds rates and a sharp sell-off in oil prices on stronger-than-expected crude oil inventories.

Base metals could experience some buying pressure in near-term as investors may be tempted to rebuild some long positioning across the board to play a macro stabilization in the Chinese economy following the latest China’s PMIs. This would not be surprising considering that money managers reduced noticeably their risk exposure to metals recently.

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 2, 2016

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 01 10:30 Spain 0.25% Jan 2019, 1.3% Oct 2026, 2.9% Oct 2046 Bonos & 1%

Sep 01 10:50 France Eur 8-9bn 0.25% Nov 2026, 1.25% May 2036 & 3.25% May 2045 OATs

Sep 01 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.5bn 0.125% Jun 2019 I/L bond & Sek 0.5bn 0.25% Jun 2022 I/L bond

Sep 01 11:30 UK Gbp 2.75bn 0.5% Jul 2022 Gilt

Sep 06 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction

Sep 06 11:30 UK 1.5% 2026 Gilt

Sep 06 11:30 Germany Holds I/L bond auction

Sep 07 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 07 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 07 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn 0% Aug 2026 Bund

Sep 08 11:00 Ireland Holds bond auction

Sep 08 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction