Copper Weekly Fundamental Analysis – March 14-18, 2016 -Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Copper showed a small decline this week after soaring at the end of last week but remained near its upper trading range at 2.236 giving up 1.54% for the week, but the metal witnessed a monthly gain of 10%. Copper rose on Friday as funds took profits, reversing bets on lower prices ahead of key economic data from top consumer China, but a stronger dollar limited the gains.

Copper on the London Metal Exchange was trading up 0.9 percent but the metal used in power and construction is on course for its first weekly loss since the week to Feb. 12. Many traders and funds, which last week and earlier this week sold copper, are buying it back ahead of industrial output and investment data over the weekend from China, which accounts for nearly half of global demand estimated at 22 million tonnes. “Industrial production data will give us a clearer picture of what’s going on with Chinese demand,” Macquarie analyst Vivienne Lloyd said. “Copper deliveries into ShFE (Shanghai Futures Exchange) took copper down about $10, but it didn’t take long before they rallied again.” Stocks of copper in warehouses monitored by ShFE rose more than 45,000 tonnes from last Friday to 350,138 tonnes, suggesting surplus material on the Chinese market.

A higher U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for non-U.S. firms, a relationship used by funds to generate buy or sell signals from numerical models.

Copper price mostly remained above support trend line, although intraday prices have skipped the support during last 4 sessions. Next week we may see a test of will between more sideways trading and the trend line.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week:

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Mar 16 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Mar 16 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0.5% Feb 2026 Bund

Mar 17 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

Mar 17 11:50 France Holds bond auction

Mar 17 19:00 US Holds 10-year TIPS auction