Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 5, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil dipped 76 cents today heading towards a new bottom as Brent Oil tumbled $1.14 on comments that Iran could quickly ramp up production. “There’s a price range of $45 to $65 for West Texas Intermediate crude that’s needed to make U.S. shale oil profitable,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director at Petromatrix GmbH in Zug, Switzerland. “Prices inevitably rebound as soon as we get near the edge of that range because the market knows any further losses will kill off U.S. supply growth.”

Oil in London fell to a six-month low on Monday amid speculation Iranian supplies will exacerbate a global surplus as demand from the U.S. to China slows.

A Reuter’s survey last week showed oil output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reached the highest monthly level in recent history in July.

“The market seems to again focus on the supply situation … one of the difficulties is that Iran may be coming back and there is no obvious sign that OPEC will make room for them,” the chief market analyst at CMC Markets said.

Brent crude has lost nearly 20 percent so far in the third quarter, which would make this the biggest slide for the three months from July to September since 2008.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

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Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 05 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Oct 2020

Aug 05 11:30 Sweden Holds bond auction

Aug 06 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Aug 06 11:10 France Auctions OATs

Aug 10 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Aug

Aug 11 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt

Aug 12 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Aug 2025 Bund

Aug 13 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus