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Barry Norman
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Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 7, 2015 - Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil continued to decline falling 24 points to 44.91 while Brent Oil fell to 49.55 down by 4 cents in the session.  OPEC, which includes Saudi Arabia and other major crude producers, has been producing about 1.7 million bpd in surplus since deciding in November to favor market share over price defense. The ensuing glut knocked Brent down 18 percent in July. U.S. crude tumbled even more, 21 percent, for its biggest monthly decline since the 2008 financial crisis.

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Despite a precipitous decline in the US rig count, greater efficiency has allowed US domestic production to rise by roughly 500k barrels since the end of 2014, according to Bloomberg data. In addition to still-robust US production, investors have had to contend with rising supply from the Middle East as well as with the prospect of even more supply from that region. With the pending Iran deal, other Middle Eastern producers appear to be ramping up production in an effort to defend market share. Thanks to rising production from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (or OPEC) production is up more than 1.5 million barrels per day since the start of the year, according to Bloomberg data.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Employment Change (Jul)

38.5K

10.0K

7.0K

   

  AUD

 

Unemployment Rate (Jul)

6.3%

6.0%

6.1%

   

  EUR

 

German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jun)

2.0%

0.2%

-0.3%

   

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Jul)

7.9%

8.2%

9.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)

-0.4%

0.1%

0.3%

   

  GBP

 

Manufacturing Production (MoM)

0.2%

0.2%

-0.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Inflation Report

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE QE Total (Aug)

 375B

375B

375B

 

 

  GBP

 

Interest Rate Decision (Aug)

 0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, August 7, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Press Conference  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)

 

223K

223K

 

 

  USD

 

Unemployment Rate (Jul)

 

5.3%

5.3%

 

 

  CAD

 

Employment Change (Jul)

 

5.0K

-6.4K

 

 

  CAD

 

Ivey PMI (Jul)

 

52.0

55.9

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 06 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Aug 06 11:10 France Auctions OATs

Aug 10 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Aug

Aug 11 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt

Aug 12 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Aug 2025 Bund

Aug 13 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Aug 19 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Sep 2017 Schatz

Aug 19 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Aug 20 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Aug 20 11:30 UK Auctions 4.25% 2036 Gilt

Aug 21 17:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 Aug

 

 

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