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Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis January 9, 2015 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Jan 8, 2015, 11:43 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil added 19 cents to climb to 48.84 while Brent Oil added 12 cents to reach 51.28. The drop in US inventory helped

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis January 9, 2015 Forecast

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis January 9, 2015 Forecast
Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis January 9, 2015 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil added 19 cents to climb to 48.84 while Brent Oil added 12 cents to reach 51.28. The drop in US inventory helped support the price on the short term, but does not offset the global gut of oil and prices are expected to remain near their bottom for a while.

Oil prices ended up yesterday for the first time in five days as traders took stock of the market’s rout after crude prices lost nearly 10 percent over two days and benchmark Brent fell to below $50 a barrel.

Weekly data for U.S. crude inventories showed a surprising drop last week, helping oil reverse early losses, although gasoline and distillates stocks jumped by record levels. Oil prices were lower in early New York trade, extending their downdraft after the first negative reading in five years for euro zone inflation. They rebounded after the inventory data issued by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Some traders said oil markets could be at a crossroads after losing over half their value from June highs, especially after the astounding 10 percent drop in the past two days.

Others thought Wednesday’s price action was just a reprieve ahead of another leg lower.

U.S. gasoline and distillate fuel stocks soared by the most ever last week, rising more than 19 million barrels as a global crude oil surplus begins to translate into swelling fuel inventories, the government data showed.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Building Approvals

7.5%

-3.5%

11.5%

   

  EUR

 

German Factory

-2.4%

-0.7%

2.9%

   

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price

0.9%

0.3%

0.5%

   

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price

7.8%

7.6%

8.1%

   

  EUR

 

Retail Sales (MoM)

0.6%

0.1%

0.6%

   

  GBP

 

BoE QE Total (Jan)

 375B

375B

375B

 

 

  GBP

 

Interest Rate Decision

 0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

290K

298K

   

Brent Oil(15 minutes)20150108120658
 
Crude Oil(15 minutes)20150108120639

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, January 9th

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

  NZD

 

Building Consents (MoM)

 

 

8.8%

  AUD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 

 

0.2%

0.4%

  CNY

 

CPI (MoM) (Dec)

 

 

-0.2%

  CNY

 

CPI (YoY) (Dec) 

 

1.5%

1.4%

  CNY

 

PPI (YoY) (Dec)

 

-3.1%

-2.7%

  EUR

 

German Industrial Production

 

0.4%

0.2%

  EUR

 

German Trade Balance (Nov)

 

20.7B

20.6B

  GBP

 

Industrial Production (MoM)

 

0.2%

-0.1%

  GBP

 

Manufacturing Production 

 

0.3%

-0.7%

  GBP

 

Trade Balance (Nov)

 

-9.40B

-9.62B

  CAD

 

Housing Starts (Dec)

 

194.0K

195.6K

  USD

 

Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) 

 

240K

321K

  USD

 

Unemployment Rate (Dec) 

 

5.7%

5.8%

  CAD

 

Building Permits (MoM) (Nov)

 

1.0%

0.7%

  CAD

 

Unemployment Rate (Dec)

 

7.0%

6.6%

Government Bond Auction

Date                                    Country               Auction

  Jan 13

EUR

 

Spanish 10-y Bond Auction

 
 

USD

 

10-y Bond Auction

 
 

JPY

 

30-y Bond Auction

 

Jan 14

USD

 

30-y Bond Auction

 

Jan 15

GBP

 

30-y Bond Auction

 

 

 

 

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