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Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis January 9, 2015 Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil added 19 cents to climb to 48.84 while Brent Oil added 12 cents to reach 51.28. The drop in US inventory helped
Crude Oil added 19 cents to climb to 48.84 while Brent Oil added 12 cents to reach 51.28. The drop in US inventory helped support the price on the short term, but does not offset the global gut of oil and prices are expected to remain near their bottom for a while.
Oil prices ended up yesterday for the first time in five days as traders took stock of the market’s rout after crude prices lost nearly 10 percent over two days and benchmark Brent fell to below $50 a barrel.
Weekly data for U.S. crude inventories showed a surprising drop last week, helping oil reverse early losses, although gasoline and distillates stocks jumped by record levels. Oil prices were lower in early New York trade, extending their downdraft after the first negative reading in five years for euro zone inflation. They rebounded after the inventory data issued by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Some traders said oil markets could be at a crossroads after losing over half their value from June highs, especially after the astounding 10 percent drop in the past two days.
Others thought Wednesday’s price action was just a reprieve ahead of another leg lower.
U.S. gasoline and distillate fuel stocks soared by the most ever last week, rising more than 19 million barrels as a global crude oil surplus begins to translate into swelling fuel inventories, the government data showed.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
WEEKLY
This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
AUD |
Building Approvals |
7.5% |
-3.5% |
11.5% |
|||
|
EUR |
German Factory |
-2.4% |
-0.7% |
2.9% |
|||
|
GBP |
Halifax House Price |
0.9% |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|||
|
GBP |
Halifax House Price |
7.8% |
7.6% |
8.1% |
|||
|
EUR |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.6% |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|||
|
GBP |
BoE QE Total (Jan) |
375B |
375B |
375B |
|
||
|
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
||
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
290K |
298K |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Friday, January 9th
|
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
|
NZD |
Building Consents (MoM) |
|
|
8.8% |
|
|
AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) |
|
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
|
CNY |
CPI (MoM) (Dec) |
|
|
-0.2% |
|
|
CNY |
CPI (YoY) (Dec) |
|
1.5% |
1.4% |
|
|
CNY |
PPI (YoY) (Dec) |
|
-3.1% |
-2.7% |
|
|
EUR |
German Industrial Production |
|
0.4% |
0.2% |
|
|
EUR |
German Trade Balance (Nov) |
|
20.7B |
20.6B |
|
|
GBP |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
|
0.2% |
-0.1% |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing Production |
|
0.3% |
-0.7% |
|
|
GBP |
Trade Balance (Nov) |
|
-9.40B |
-9.62B |
|
|
CAD |
Housing Starts (Dec) |
|
194.0K |
195.6K |
|
|
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) |
|
240K |
321K |
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Rate (Dec) |
|
5.7% |
5.8% |
|
|
CAD |
Building Permits (MoM) (Nov) |
|
1.0% |
0.7% |
|
|
CAD |
Unemployment Rate (Dec) |
|
7.0% |
6.6% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Country Auction
|
Jan 13 |
EUR |
Spanish 10-y Bond Auction |
||
|
USD |
10-y Bond Auction |
|||
|
JPY |
30-y Bond Auction |
|||
|
Jan 14 |
USD |
30-y Bond Auction |
||
|
Jan 15 |
GBP |
30-y Bond Auction |
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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