Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – November 13, 2015 – Forecast

By:

Updated: Nov 12, 2015, 11:23 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil gained 15 points after falling hard this week to trade at 43.08 as the commodity tries to remain above the

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – November 13, 2015 - Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil gained 15 points after falling hard this week to trade at 43.08 as the commodity tries to remain above the technical support level at $43. Brent Oil added 11 points to reach 46.72 as Iraq increases production level adding to the global glut of oil. Oil prices are slightly higher because of a weaker dollar on Thursday, though the gains may not sustain as the near-term outlook remains challenging.

Investors are awaiting data on U.S. oil stockpiles to be released later in the day by the Energy Information Administration, which may show an increase because of a seasonal slowdown and weaken prices.

There is also speculation that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries may raise a cap on production by around one million barrels when they meet on Dec. 4, he said, which may aid the bearish sentiment on crude oil caused by a supply overhang.

Oil prices are likely to be volatile in the near term leading up to the OPEC meeting next month as representatives of member nations of OPEC may make different statements, said Veranda Chauhan, energy analyst at Singapore-based Energy Aspect.

An increase in OPEC’s production quota could materialize as Indonesia is slated to rejoin the organization during the December meeting, said Mr. Chauhan, underscoring that the country alone produces around 800,000 barrels per day.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Business NZ PMI (Oct)	53.3		55.4
GBP	RICS House Price Balance (Oct)	49%	45%	44%
AUD	Employment Change (Oct)	58.6K	15.0K	-0.8K
AUD	Full Employment Change (Oct)	40.0K		-10.4K
AUD	Unemployment Rate (Oct)	5.9%	6.2%	6.2%
EUR	German CPI (MoM) (Oct)	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CNY	New Loans	514.0B	800.0B	1,050.0B
EUR	ECB President Draghi Speaks
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)		-0.1%	-0.5%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		270K	276K
USD	FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
USD	Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
USD	JOLTs Job Openings (Sep)		5.370M	5.370M
USD	Crude Oil Inventories		1.016M	2.847M
USD	FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, November 13, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)		1.0%	1.0%
JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index		0.2%	0.1%
EUR	German GDP (YoY) (Q3)		1.8%	1.6%
EUR	German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		0.3%	0.4%
EUR	GDP (YoY) (Q3)		1.7%	1.5%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		0.4%	0.4%
EUR	Trade Balance (Sep)		18.2B	11.2B
USD	Core PPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	-0.3%
USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)		0.4%	-0.3%
USD	PPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.2%	-0.5%
USD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)		0.3%	0.1%
USD	Business Inventories (MoM) (Sep)		0.1%	0.0%
USD	Michigan Consumer Expectations		84.0	82.1
USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)		91.5	90.0
USD	FOMC Member Mester Speaks
USD	Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count			572