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Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil touched a record low of 80.38 and bounced to trade at 80.92 down 93 cents for the day. Brent Oil is down 79 cents

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2014 Forecast
Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2014 Forecast
Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil touched a record low of 80.38 and bounced to trade at 80.92 down 93 cents for the day. Brent Oil is down 79 cents at 84.62. OPEC continues to increase production to offset the fall in prices as the organizational members try to price the US out of the markets.  Oil has collapsed into a bear market as shale supplies boost U.S. output to the most in almost 30 years and global demand growth weakens. The largest producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are responding by cutting prices, sparking speculation that they will compete for market share rather than reduce supply.

The average regular gasoline price in the U.S. fell 0.9 cents a gallon to $3.177, Heathrow, Florida-based motoring group AAA said on its website today. That’s the lowest since February 2011.

U.S. crude stockpiles probably climbed for a second week to 364.2 million barrels, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of nine analysts before the Energy Information Administration report tomorrow. Production rose to 8.88 million a day in the week ended Oct. 3, the most since March 1986, said the Energy Department’s statistical arm.

OPEC, which supplies about 40 percent of the world’s crude, is raising output amid speculation its members are fighting for market share. The group pumped 30.47 million barrels a day in September, the most since August 2013, its monthly report on Oct. 10 showed.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Madera gave instructions to ask for an emergency meeting of OPEC, the country’s foreign ministry said in a post on its Twitter account on Oct. 10. Kuwait hasn’t received an invitation to hold an emergency session to consider cutting output, the country’s Oil Minister Ali Al-Omair told the official Kuwait News Agency. Youcef Yousfi, Algeria’s energy minister said Oct. 12 his government is “tranquil” about prices.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Consumer Sentiment

0.9%

 

-4.6%

 

 

  CNY

 

CPI (MoM) (Sep)

0.5%

0.4%

0.2%

 

 

  CNY

 

CPI (YoY) (Sep)

1.6%

1.7%

2.0%

 

 

  CNY

 

PPI (YoY) (Sep)

-1.8%

-1.6%

-1.2%

 

 

  JPY

 

Industrial Production

-1.9%

-1.5%

-1.5%

 

 

  EUR

 

German CPI (MoM)

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi 

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Average Earnings Index 

0.7%

0.7%

0.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

Claimant Count

-18.6K

-35.0K

-33.2K

 

 

  GBP

 

Unemployment Rate

6.0%

6.1%

6.2%

 

 

  USD

 

Core PPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.1%

0.1%

 

 

  USD

 

Core Retail Sales

 

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

  USD

 

NY Empire State

 

20.50

27.54

 

 

  USD

 

PPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.1%

0.0%

 

 

  USD

 

Retail Sales (MoM)

 

-0.1%

0.6%

 

 

  USD

 

Business Inventories

 

0.4%

0.4%

 

 

  USD

 

Federal Budget

 

80.9B

-129.0B

 

 

  USD

 

Beige Book

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi

       

Brent Oil(15 minutes)20141015122236
 
Crude Oil(15 minutes)20141015122219

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

Business NZ PMI (Sep)

 

 

56.5

 

 

  EUR

 

Core CPI (YoY) (Sep)

 

0.7%

0.7%

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.4%

0.1%

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Sep)

 

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

290K

287K

 

 

  CAD

 

Manufacturing Sales

 

-1.6%

2.5%

 

 

  USD

 

Industrial Production

 

0.4%

-0.1%

 

 

  USD

 

Phil Fed Manufacturing 

 

20.0

22.5

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 14 08:30 Spain 6 & 12M T-bill auction

Oct 14 09:30 Belgium 3 & 12M T-bill auction (Jan & Oct 2015)

Oct 15 09:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 15 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Sep 2016 Schatz auction

Oct 16 08:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction

Oct 16 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt

Oct 16 15:00 US Announces details of 30Y TIPS auction on Oct 23

 

 

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