Crude Oil Forecast November 24, 2015, Technical Analysis

Light Sweet Crude

The light sweet crude market fell initially during the course of the session on Monday, testing the $40.50 level. The $40 level below is a massive support level as far as we can tell, so we have no interest whatsoever in selling this market yet, but would be interested in selling on rallies that show signs of resistance. The candle is a bit positive, so we do anticipate seeing some type of rally. We recognize that there is a massive amount of resistance above at the $43.50 level, as well as the $45 level beyond that. We believe that any signs of resistance above should be selling opportunities, just as a break down below the $40 level would be. The US dollar continues to strengthen, so having said that it makes sense that commodity markets will continue to go lower, especially this one as demand for crude oil seems to be falling off of a cliff.

Brent

Brent markets initially fell during the course of the session on Monday, but found enough support at the $43.50 level to turn things around and form a fairly positive candle. A break higher to the $45.50 level is what ended up happening, and we did see this market try to close towards the top of that range so further upward momentum could present itself. However, we believe that there is more than enough resistance at the $47.50 level to keep this market fairly negative, and as a result we are simply waiting for some type of resistive candle in order to go short yet again of this market.

Ultimately, we expect this market to reach down towards the $40 level, so a move to the upside is essentially value to be found in the US dollar. If we can break down below and make a fresh, new low, we would be sellers there as well. At this point in time, we believe that the market is simply far too negative to even risk trying to go long, even for short-term moves currently.