Crude Oil Forecasts – Summer Range Limits Upside Despite Geopolitical Risks

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude oil market gapped higher to kick off the trading session on Thursday, but then turned around to fall pretty significantly to test whether or not the momentum can stay there. That does make a certain amount of sense because there are a lot of questions out there when it comes to the Middle East and, of course, whether or not supply will be disrupted again.

I think right now you probably have more of an upward bias than down. That makes a certain amount of sense, but you should also keep in mind that typically, this time of year, we try to find some type of range. And over the last couple of days, I have been saying that we filled the gap from the opening of the war, which could be the floor.

The question is, where is the top? I think the top without some type of major escalation of the range could be somewhere right around the 200-day EMA, so maybe we have a little further day to go to the upside, but I don’t think a lot, least not as things stand right now.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The Brent markets look very much the same, and again, I think they are trying to find their range as well. They gapped higher, they collapsed, and then bounced a bit during the day. The 200-day EMA sits at the $83 level, an area that, of course, will be of interest due to that technical indicator.

I don’t know if we’ll get much further than that. I think there is still a little bit more upward pressure than anything else in this market, but I also recognize that it’s somewhat limited in the sense that there are concerns about some economies slowing down, so that would also influence demand. I think we’re just trying to find the top of the summer range in both of these grades of crude oil.

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