Currencies Forecast – RBNZ Rate Hike Sparks Kiwi Rally Amid Global Consolidation

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro did initially try to rally against the US dollar during the early part of the trading session on Thursday, but we’ve seen rates in America rise a bit since then, and it certainly has had a major influence on what happens with the dollar. The Euro has given back a bit of the gains, and now it looks like we are getting ready to roll over, perhaps looking to reach the 1.1350 level. If we were to take off to the upside, the 1.15 level, I believe, is a little bit of a barrier.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The US dollar has pulled back just a touch against the Canadian dollar but found the 1.4150 level offering support. I think you’re just seeing more of the same consolidation here that we’ve been in for a while. I don’t really expect much out of this, but if we were to break down below the 1.4150 level, then I’ll be looking at the 1.40 area for a potential buying opportunity. To the upside, if we can break 1.4250, that opens up a move to 1.45.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

And finally, the New Zealand dollar is rallying after the RBNZ raised rates, but there’s also a pricing in of another rate hike in September that is making the Kiwi dollar a little bit of an outlier and a lot of this comes down to the conflict in the Middle East, so we’ll see how that plays out. I still think there’s a lot of resistance above somewhere near the 50-day EMA or the 0.58 level. I think you’re looking at the possibility of shorting signs of exhaustion.

If you’re a short-term momentum trader, this could be a play for you now, but for myself, I’d rather take the swing trade if and when we get to that area. I still think the US dollar will come out on top in general. Sooner or later, we’ll get over the excitement of a potential interest rate hike in New Zealand, and we’ll go back to that US dollar inflationary safety trade.

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