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Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis December 6, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil dipped to trade at 88.20 off by 30cents. Crude prices fell amid uncertainty surrounding US budget talks and
Analysis and Recommendations:
Crude Oil dipped to trade at 88.20 off by 30cents. Crude prices fell amid uncertainty surrounding US budget talks and caution ahead of the weekly release of US oil supply data. Later today, the US Department of Energy is due to issue its regular weekly report on US oil supplies, with analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires predicting it would reflect a decrease of 400,000 barrels. Earlier Tuesday, the US Energy Information Administration reported that US monthly crude oil production reached its highest level in nearly 15 years, averaging almost 6.5 million barrels per day in September 2012. The last time the United States produced this much per day was in January 1998. Markets also were closely watching a budget impasse in Washington that could send the world’s biggest economy into recession if no deal is reached to avert the year-end “fiscal cliff” of significant tax increases and spending cuts that take effect in January. Investors fear that if Republicans and Democrats fail to reach a compromise on longer-term budget-deficit reduction to avoid the cliff, demand for crude will drop.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data December 5, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Dec. 05 |
|
AUD |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
0.5% |
|
0.6% |
|
0.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Services PMI |
50.2 |
|
51.1 |
|
50.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction |
5.290% |
|
|
5.517% |
|
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-1.2% |
|
-0.1% |
|
-0.6% |
||
|
|
|
PLN |
|
|
Polish Interest Rate Decision |
4.25% |
|
4.25% |
|
4.50% |
|
|
|
|
|
RUB |
|
|
Russian CPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
|
0.5% |
|
0.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
118K |
|
125K |
|
157K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) |
2.9% |
|
2.7% |
|
1.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) |
-1.9% |
|
-0.9% |
|
-0.1% |
|
WEEKLY
-
This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule) -
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule) -
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Dec. 06 |
08:15 |
CHF |
0.1% |
||
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-8.8B |
-8.4B |
|
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
0.9% |
-3.3% |
|
|
|
12:00 |
GBP |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
|
12:00 |
GBP |
375B |
375B |
|
|
|
12:45 |
EUR |
0.75% |
0.75% |
|
|
Dec. 07 |
09:30 |
GBP |
0.7% |
-1.7% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.6% |
-2.6% |
|
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
-0.5% |
-1.8% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Dec 06 01:30 Japan
Dec 06 09:50 France
Dec 06 16:00 US
Dec 07 16:30 Italy
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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