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Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis February 21, 2013 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 12:00 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil is trading at 97.06 basically flat today. Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady early Wednesday. The

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis February 21, 2013 Forecast
Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis February 21, 2013 Forecast
Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis February 21, 2013 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading at 97.06 basically flat today. Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady early Wednesday. The crude oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded a bit recently. If crude oil bulls start to weaken that would be a bearish development for the raw commodity sector, including the precious metals. Traders are waiting this afternoon’s release of the latest minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting from early January. These minutes in the past few months have been market-movers. Traders and investors will scrutinize the minutes for clues regarding upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy moves. Speculators are also going to pay close attention to the American Petroleum Report due later today.

US crude prices advanced on reports of increasing oil volume through the Seaway Pipeline. The Seaway pipeline has recently been troubled by distribution problems but plans to pump 295,000 barrels a day between late February and the end of May, media reports said. Seaway is seen as a critical component in addressing a glut of oil at the bottlenecked US hub in Cushing, Oklahoma. The pipeline’s capacity was recently expanded to 400,000 barrels a day from 150,000 barrels, but the operator has encountered technical problems that have limited the volume

Due to the US holiday on Monday the US government’s Department of Energy will publish its weekly inventory figures one day later than usual.

 FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data February 20, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Feb. 20

 

JPY

 

 

Trade Balance 

-0.68T

 

-0.59T 

 

-0.78T 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

Wage Price Index

0.8%

 

0.8% 

 

0.7% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

-0.5%

 

-0.5% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.7% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French CPI (MoM) 

-0.5%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Average Earnings Index

1.4%

 

1.4% 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Claimant Count Dif.

-12.5K

 

-5.0K 

 

-15.8K 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Building Permits 

 0.925M

 

0.915M 

 

0.909M 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

 0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Housing Starts 

 0.890M

 

0.925M 

 

0.954M 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

 0.2%

 

0.4% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

PPI (YoY) 

 1.4%

 

1.4% 

 

1.3% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PPI (YoY) 

 1.8%

 

1.6% 

 

2.0% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

FOMC Minutes 

             

oiol 0220

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Feb. 21

07:58

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

43.8 

42.9 

 

08:28

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

50.5 

49.8 

 

09:00

EUR

Manufacturing PMI 

48.4 

47.9 

 

09:45

EUR

Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction 

 

5.290% 

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-15 

-20 

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.1% 

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.1% 

0.0% 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

355K 

341K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3170K 

3114K 

 

13:30

USD

CPI (YoY) 

1.6% 

1.7% 

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.8% 

1.9% 

 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales 

4.90M 

4.94M 

 

15:00

USD

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

1.0 

-5.8

Upcoming Government Bond

Date Time Country 

Feb 21 01:30 Japan 

Feb 21 09:30 Spain 

Feb 21 09:50 France 

Feb 21 10:30 UK 

Feb 21 10:50 France 

Feb 21 16:30 Italy  

Feb 21 16:00 US 

Feb 21 18:00 US 

Feb 22 16:30 Italy  

Feb 25 10:10 Italy  

Feb 25 10:30 Germany 

Feb 25 11:30 Belgium 

Feb 25 18:00 US 

Feb 26 10:10 Italy  

Feb 26 15:30 UK 

Feb 26 18:00 US 

Feb 27 10:10 Italy  

Feb 27 15:30 Sweden 

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