Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil eased down by 57cents today to trade at 90.22 as the US dollar gained momentum as traders sought safety. Even
Analysis and Recommendations:
Crude Oil eased down by 57cents today to trade at 90.22 as the US dollar gained momentum as traders sought safety. Even though Chinese data reported on the positive side, with HSBC PMI data reporting above forecast and showing continued expansion, market attention remained on the US, with data having little action in today’s trading session. Crude began to declined on Friday after EIA weekly inventories showed a smaller than expected decline in inventory. Traders had been pushing crude up all week prior to the inventory release. US eco data for the week supported increased demand for energy as housing and manufacturing all printed above expectations. Crude oil inventories in the U.S. moved down during the week ended December 21, official data showed Friday. The U.S. Energy Information Administration in its weekly crude oil report said U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 0.60 million barrels to 371.10 million barrels last week, but are well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Meanwhile, total motor gasoline inventories jumped by 3.80 million barrels last week, after increasing by 2.20 million barrels in the prior week, and are well above the upper limit of the average range. Analysts were expecting crude oil inventories to shed 1.90 million barrels and gasoline stocks to add 0.50 million barrels last week. It was the crazy roller coaster ride of the US dollar this week that kept dollar denominated commodities active. As lawmakers in the US seemed to go from deal to no deal to bickering and posturing to now a hardcore press to reach a deal so did the greenback. Many markets are closed or will be closing early on Monday and many traders out of the markets, so there is little volume expected.
Our fundamental analysis will not be published tomorrow, as we celebrated the New Year’s holiday and global markets are shuttered. I would like to take this time to wish all of my readers and followers the best in the New Year… Here’s to profitable trading.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data December 31, 2012 actual v. forecast
Date |
Time |
|
Currency |
|
Importance |
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
Dec. 31 |
00:30 |
|
AUD |
|
|
Private Sector Credit (MoM) |
0.0% |
|
0.3% |
|
0.1% |
|
||
|
01:45 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
51.50 |
|
50.90 |
|
50.90 |
|
||
|
02:00 |
|
SGD |
|
|
Singaporean Bank Landing (MoM) |
481.70B |
|
|
|
479.40B |
|
||
|
09:30 |
|
GBP |
|
|
Housing Equity Withdrawal (QoQ) |
-8.0B |
|
-9.1B |
|
-9.4B |
|||
|
10:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
Greek Retail Sales (YoY) |
-18.10% |
|
|
|
-11.80% |
WEEKLY
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
Jan. 01 |
01:00 |
CNY |
51.00 |
50.60 |
|
Jan. 02 |
00:00 |
EUR |
0.7% |
-0.1% |
|
|
00:00 |
EUR |
1.9% |
1.9% |
|
|
08:00 |
CHF |
1.38 |
1.50 |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
50.2 |
49.5 |
|
Jan. 03 |
08:00 |
CHF |
1.35 |
1.50 |
|
|
08:30 |
CHF |
48.5 |
48.5 |
|
|
08:55 |
EUR |
10K |
5K |
Upcoming Government Bond
Date Time Country
Thursday, January 5: France will auction an estimated €7-8 billion ($9.1-10.4 billion) in 10-year and other long-term bonds
Tuesday, January 10: Austria will auction €1.3 billion ($1.7 billion) in 5- and 10-year bonds
Thursday, January 12: Spanish 3- and 5-year bond auction
Friday, January 13: Italy will auction medium-long term bonds
Thursday, January 19: France will auction 5-year bonds
Thursday, January 19: Spanish 10-, 15-, and 30-year bond auction
Thursday, January 26: Italian long-term bond auction
Monday, January 30: Italian medium-long term bond auction
Monday, January 30: Belgian bond auction