Crude Oil Price Analysis – Crude Oil Waits for Talks to End

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude oil market had gapped lower to kick off the session but we have rallied since then. We’re not positive yet, but we are starting to try to get there. Ultimately, there are a lot of questions out there as to what happens next between the Americans and the Iranians, and that, of course, has a major influence on oil.

There are talks today and we’ll have to see how that plays out, but light sweet crude is hanging around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-day EMA at the same time. So, if there’s an area where you would expect to see support, it would probably be here.

A breakdown from here could open up a move back down toward the $80 level. That could be a result of an actual permanent agreement or signs that a permanent agreement between the Americans and the Iranians could happen. If that were to happen, that would obviously be very bearish for oil, but if it seems like things are only getting worse again, then oil probably jumps towards the $92 level.

Brent Technical Analysis

The Brent market looks very much the same, gapping lower, rallying a bit, pulling back a bit now and it just seems like it’s in a state of waiting. With that being the case, I think you have to look at this as a market that is trying to figure out where it wants to go longer term, and quite frankly, the traders don’t really have much of a say until we figure out how things play out between the United States and Iran.

Again, it’s the same situation, we’ll see how the talks progress. That probably determines whether we go to $100 on signs of increased hesitation for peace or irritation between the two sides, or if we reach down towards the $90 on signs that maybe peace is coming.