Crude oil dipped to $57.77, breaching $58.36, but a bounce eyes reversal if it holds above $58.39 Fibonacci support.
Crude oil activated a bearish continuation signal on Tuesday, breaking down from an inside day from Monday to hit a new corrective low of $57.77, before staging an intraday rebound. The prior trend low at $58.36 from Friday, was briefly violated during early selling. But prices have recovered above it as of this writing. A daily close above $58.36 could signal an emerging bottom, with support testing the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement zone at $58.39 – a critical maximum retracement zone in Fibonacci analysis. Breaching this level decisively would heighten the risk of failure, opening the door to lower targets around indicator confluence at $56.47.
Complementing the Fibonacci level, the lower boundary of a potential falling bullish wedge (orange lines) also points to possible support nearby. Early signs of buying interest are evident, but a decisive drop below today’s low of $57.77 would shatter the potential for a bullish setup. That would also invalidate the wedge pattern and accelerate downside moves toward $56.47. The integrity of this pattern hinges on holding $57.77, where buyers must prove their resolve to halt the slide.
A promising bullish three-bar setup looms, with activation on a rally above today’s high of $59.92. This move would negate the new trend low bearish signal triggered by the drop below $58.36. A daily close above $59.92 would confirm reversal strength, boosting the odds for an advance toward the wedge’s upper boundary. Intermediate hurdles would provide confirmation along the way, testing buyer conviction.
On any recovery, a prior support shelf around $60.66 could flip to resistance, aligning closely with the falling 10-day moving average at $60.90—levels converging over time. Reclaiming the 10-day line sustainably would pivot toward the 20-day average at $62.45, where the recent swing high of $63.04 met rejection. The market previously respected this average, and it may cap gains again unless it is breached decisively, signaling renewed bullish momentum.
Crude’s fate balances on $58.39 support; hold it for the hope of a bullish reversal or break it for deeper declines. Watch for a close above $59.92 to spark bulls, while $56.47 lurks below. Price action in the next day or so should clarify if this dip is a trap or a turning point.
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With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, Bruce is a seasoned finance MBA and CMT® charter holder. Having worked as head of trading strategy at hedge funds and a corporate advisor for trading firms, Bruce shares his expertise in futures to retail investors, providing actionable insights through both technical and fundamental analyses.