Crude oil markets continue to be very noisy due to varying expectations. We are starting to get significant bullish pressure due to the OPEC production cuts be extended through the rest of the year of 2018, but at the same time we have several concerns when it comes to Americans jumping into the market with more production.
Looking at the crude oil markets, it’s very likely that we will continue to see volatility as the Thursday session went back and forth between the $58 level on the upside, and the $57 level on the bottom. This means that the market is going to continue to be attracted to the $57.50 level, which is a significant level on the longer-term charts as well. I think the given enough time, the market will decide one way or the other as to which direction we go, but I think that the overall attitude should be decided within the next couple of sessions. Simply put, if we stay in this general vicinity, it becomes a range bound type of trade, and stochastic oscillator systems or other such trading methodologies could be employed. A breakdown below the lows of the day for the Thursday session could send this market much lower, perhaps reaching towards the $55 level. Rallies will of course be a little more difficult to hang onto.
Brent markets gapped lower at the beginning of the session on Thursday, rallying back to fill the gap later in the day, and then dropping down towards the $62.50 level underneath. I believe that the market is going to continue to go lower in general though, as the OPEC production cuts being extended is bullish, but given enough time it looks like the Americans are going to push the market down as the supply will certainly flood the markets. With this, I believe selling the rallies will continue to be the way to go with a target of $60 longer term.
Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.