Crude Oil Price Forecast: Extends Decline as Bear Flag Triggers Deeper Targets

Crude Oil Breaks Lower After Resistance Rejection

Crude oil turned down on Thursday after another rejection at the 20-Day moving average, with prices reaching a high of $64.07 before turning down to a three-day low of $62.51. Sellers remain in control, and further weakness is likely before the session concludes. The decline triggered a small bear flag breakdown, following last week’s larger flag failure, underscoring the fractal nature of current market pressure. Thursday marks the fifth consecutive rejection at the 20-Day line, highlighting the persistence of resistance and pointing to lower targets.

Bear Flags Point to Deeper Downside

The latest breakdown extends a sharp three-day slide, confirming aggressive selling pressure. Support at the recent $61.84 swing low is now vulnerable, with the next zone anchored by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $60.66. This level is reinforced by a prior May support shelf. A measured move from the current bear flag identifies a target near $59.68, slightly below Fibonacci support, and now in focus for traders watching downside continuation.

Developing Wedge Still Intact

Despite the downside extension, the current decline remains within a developing falling potential bull wedge pattern. The wedge has already expanded once, with the upper boundary adjusted to connect the $66.52 swing high, which also aligned with resistance at the 50-Day moving average. This adjustment adds credibility to the revised wedge structure and raises the probability that the lower boundary may eventually be tested before the decline completes. Although not guaranteed, such a move would fit the evolving wedge framework.

Weekly Candle Turns Bearish

With only one trading day remaining in the week, crude oil appears set to close with a bearish candle if selling persists. Currently, an inside-week shooting star has formed, with prices holding near the lower end of the weekly range. This structure reinforces the short-term bearish tone and highlights the importance of upcoming support tests around $61.84 and $60.66 for the broader trend outlook. It also follows a bearish candle pattern from last week.

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