Crude Oil Price Forecast: Extends Sharp Rally to 50-day Average

Chart Action

Crude oil powered higher on Thursday, extending Wednesday’s gains to a high of $62.56, testing resistance at the 50-day moving average. The rally, sparked by a breakout above the 20-day average at $60.61, keeps buyers in charge, with trading near the day’s highs as of this writing. A strong close seems likely, reflecting sustained bullish momentum.

Trade Setup

The advance builds on Tuesday’s bull hammer reversal from a $56.41 trend low, followed by yesterday’s breakout from a small falling channel. Today’s follow-through targets a falling trendline from June’s peak. A close above the 50-day average ($62.60, descending) would signal potential for a bull breakout above this line, though resistance may emerge at or before it.

Support Levels

With the 20-day average reclaimed, it now anchors key support at $60.61. Given today’s wide green range and likely high close, buyers should defend higher in the day’s range—above the $60.08 low—if momentum holds. A pullback to $60.61 would test the breakout’s strength but aligns with the bullish structure.

Upside Targets

Clearing the trendline opens the 200-day average at $66.05 as a target, where September’s interim highs stalled at $66.77 and $66.52. A weekly high at $63.09 also looms, with this week’s one-week bullish reversal likely confirming on a close above last week’s $60.28 high, reinforcing the uptrend.

Outlook

The $62.60 close is pivotal—above it fuels trendline breakout hopes, targeting $66.05; below it risks stalling at $63.09. The $60.61 support underpins the rally, with today’s strength suggesting buyers’ resolve. Watch the close for confirmation: a high finish keeps bulls on track, but a trendline rejection could prompt a pause.

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